SEZ WHO? Election Prediction 2016 November 5, 2016 9:00 PM Subscribe
We have nearly made it - brains and souls battered - through this sad, scary, demoralizing, but also potentially thrillingly historic! election season. We've talked this thing to death in the election threads (we love you mods). Let's place our final bets here! What will it be?
In the comments, please tell me:
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: ### D - ### R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: ##% D - ##% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? (Y/N/ambiguous/concession speech by someone not the losing candidate)
WILL YOU CRY? (optional)
(feel free to make and link an electoral vote map of your prediction at 270towin.com, or list your state breakdowns)
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS:
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS:
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE?
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS?
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Winner gets bragging rights. In keeping with the charitable history of the contest, but consistent with my inability to figure out a good mathematical way to judge it, I will make one $50 gift to the most non-Trump charitable cause you can name, and we can all consider ourselves winners or losers by our own metrics.
Contest closes at 11:59 PM on Monday, November 7.
If you want to discuss the substance of the election rather than just make a prediction, please visit the election2016 tag on the Blue to find the election threads.
In the comments, please tell me:
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: ### D - ### R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: ##% D - ##% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? (Y/N/ambiguous/concession speech by someone not the losing candidate)
WILL YOU CRY? (optional)
(feel free to make and link an electoral vote map of your prediction at 270towin.com, or list your state breakdowns)
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS:
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS:
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE?
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS?
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Winner gets bragging rights. In keeping with the charitable history of the contest, but consistent with my inability to figure out a good mathematical way to judge it, I will make one $50 gift to the most non-Trump charitable cause you can name, and we can all consider ourselves winners or losers by our own metrics.
Contest closes at 11:59 PM on Monday, November 7.
If you want to discuss the substance of the election rather than just make a prediction, please visit the election2016 tag on the Blue to find the election threads.
WILL YOU CRY?
Yeah, I'm gonna go 100:1 on that one.
posted by mochapickle at 9:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]
Yeah, I'm gonna go 100:1 on that one.
posted by mochapickle at 9:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
I'm going to have dinner at a local Mexican restaurant, then later I will have cake and liquor. It will all be delicious.
I will also have momentary pangs of sadness since my mom didn't live to witness this YET I will also be happy because LOOK AROUND, LOOK AROUND at how lucky we are to be alive right now and HISTORY TOTALLY HAS ITS EYES ON US.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 9:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]
I'm going to have dinner at a local Mexican restaurant, then later I will have cake and liquor. It will all be delicious.
I will also have momentary pangs of sadness since my mom didn't live to witness this YET I will also be happy because LOOK AROUND, LOOK AROUND at how lucky we are to be alive right now and HISTORY TOTALLY HAS ITS EYES ON US.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 9:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]
YAY! NEW ELECTION THREAD!
posted by sebastienbailard at 9:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by sebastienbailard at 9:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]
In the comments, please tell me:
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? ambiguous, angry rant
WILL YOU CRY? (optional) YES
(feel free to make and link an electoral vote map of your prediction at 270towin.com, or list your state breakdowns)
My map
Not really ready to predict the Senate.
posted by dis_integration at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? ambiguous, angry rant
WILL YOU CRY? (optional) YES
(feel free to make and link an electoral vote map of your prediction at 270towin.com, or list your state breakdowns)
My map
Not really ready to predict the Senate.
posted by dis_integration at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2016
*Will* I cry? I filled out my ballot Friday and cried huge wracking sobs just filling in the oval next to Clinton's name.
I'm with mochapickle, 100:1 odds that I will cry no matter the outcome.
posted by barchan at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]
I'm with mochapickle, 100:1 odds that I will cry no matter the outcome.
posted by barchan at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]
Clinton 322
Trump 216
Closer than it should be, but not really in doubt.
Trump doesn't concede, but loses any actual legal challenge if there is one.
Dems don't win the Senate. 51R-49D.
Clinton administration is basically DOA, 4 years of even more unprecedented obstruction. Clinton gets no SCOTUS seats.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:25 PM on November 5, 2016
Trump 216
Closer than it should be, but not really in doubt.
Trump doesn't concede, but loses any actual legal challenge if there is one.
Dems don't win the Senate. 51R-49D.
Clinton administration is basically DOA, 4 years of even more unprecedented obstruction. Clinton gets no SCOTUS seats.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:25 PM on November 5, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 409 D - 123 R - 6 I (McMuFinn)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 42% R - 6% Other
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes
WILL YOU CRY? 100%
Here's my predicted electoral map.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single-digit
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? California abolishes the death penalty.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Trump plays or quotes Frank Sinatra's "My Way"
posted by sallybrown at 9:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 409 D - 123 R - 6 I (McMuFinn)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 42% R - 6% Other
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes
WILL YOU CRY? 100%
Here's my predicted electoral map.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single-digit
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? California abolishes the death penalty.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Trump plays or quotes Frank Sinatra's "My Way"
posted by sallybrown at 9:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 409 D - 123 R - 6 I (McMuFinn)
Clinton takes Texas huh? Gutsy, but I like it.
posted by dis_integration at 9:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]
Clinton takes Texas huh? Gutsy, but I like it.
posted by dis_integration at 9:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 329 D - 203 R - 6 EGG (how could I not)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 50% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Eventually, and a petulant one at that.
WILL YOU CRY? I'm getting a little choked up right now just thinking about it. So, yes, almost certainly.
Senate 50 - 50
House stays R
State Races
Weed passes in CA
Measure 97 fails in OR, which will be a bummer.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Yes, I will be a fucking wreck at school all next week no matter what happens.
posted by dersins at 9:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 50% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Eventually, and a petulant one at that.
WILL YOU CRY? I'm getting a little choked up right now just thinking about it. So, yes, almost certainly.
Senate 50 - 50
House stays R
State Races
Weed passes in CA
Measure 97 fails in OR, which will be a bummer.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Yes, I will be a fucking wreck at school all next week no matter what happens.
posted by dersins at 9:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
HOW MANY UNITS OF ALCOHOL WILL YOU DRINK?
posted by AFABulous at 9:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by AFABulous at 9:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]
Hellyeah
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 320 D - 218 R (I want to believe in McMuffinMentum but it’s looking less likely now)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 50% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? (ambiguous – he’ll make a speech but it will be weird and very short)
WILL YOU CRY? (I wanna say not but, probably tbh)
ELECTORAL MAP!
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
Florida and Nevada far exceed polling-based predictions (let's say by at least 2.5 points each)
North Carolina is the closest D state, Ohio is the closest R state
More marijuana laws pass than fail
North Carolina’s governor is voted out
Grab Bag
At least one faithless elector after votes are counted
Clinton visibly sheds a tear
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:59 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 320 D - 218 R (I want to believe in McMuffinMentum but it’s looking less likely now)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 50% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? (ambiguous – he’ll make a speech but it will be weird and very short)
WILL YOU CRY? (I wanna say not but, probably tbh)
ELECTORAL MAP!
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
Florida and Nevada far exceed polling-based predictions (let's say by at least 2.5 points each)
North Carolina is the closest D state, Ohio is the closest R state
More marijuana laws pass than fail
North Carolina’s governor is voted out
Grab Bag
At least one faithless elector after votes are counted
Clinton visibly sheds a tear
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:59 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R (like most people, apparently)
POPULAR VOTE: 48% D, 45% R, 4% L, 2% G
SENATE: 50 D - 50 R
HOUSE: Republican, double digits (fucking gerrymandering)
CONCESSION SPEECH: Trump gives weird ambiguous concession speech, demands recounts in the closest 2 states and/or files frivolous lawsuit
WILL YOU CRY: May tear up a bit but will definitely stress eat
OTHER PREDICTIONS: Marijuana mostly passes. Trump will pick up one EV in Maine, Scott Weiner will win over Jane Kim, and the BART bond will pass but they'll all be surprisingly close. RBG retires within the first two years of Clinton's presidency.
posted by en forme de poire at 10:05 PM on November 5, 2016
POPULAR VOTE: 48% D, 45% R, 4% L, 2% G
SENATE: 50 D - 50 R
HOUSE: Republican, double digits (fucking gerrymandering)
CONCESSION SPEECH: Trump gives weird ambiguous concession speech, demands recounts in the closest 2 states and/or files frivolous lawsuit
WILL YOU CRY: May tear up a bit but will definitely stress eat
OTHER PREDICTIONS: Marijuana mostly passes. Trump will pick up one EV in Maine, Scott Weiner will win over Jane Kim, and the BART bond will pass but they'll all be surprisingly close. RBG retires within the first two years of Clinton's presidency.
posted by en forme de poire at 10:05 PM on November 5, 2016
OOPS I fucked up Maine when I was making my map - it should be 3 EVs to Clinton and 1 EV to Trump, making the total 322 to 216.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 300 D - 238 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52.5% D - 46% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Eh.
WILL YOU CRY?
Almost certainly multiple times per night.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double digits, but I would love to be wrong.
State Races
Washington state:
* Governor: Jay Inslee (D)
* Lt Gov: Cyrus Habib (D)
* Secretary of State: Podlodowski (D).
* Commissioner of Public Lands: Hilary Franz (D)
* Superintendent of Schools: Erin Jones (non-partisan)
* Initiative 1433, higher minimum wage & sick leave: passes
* Initiative 732, carbon tax: barely barely passes
* State legislature: Democrats take back the state senate by one seat, hold onto house control.
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell or some other senior Republican will say something horrifyingly and pre-emptively obstructive within 24 hours should Hillary Clinton win.
posted by R343L at 10:34 PM on November 5, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 300 D - 238 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52.5% D - 46% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Eh.
WILL YOU CRY?
Almost certainly multiple times per night.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double digits, but I would love to be wrong.
State Races
Washington state:
* Governor: Jay Inslee (D)
* Lt Gov: Cyrus Habib (D)
* Secretary of State: Podlodowski (D).
* Commissioner of Public Lands: Hilary Franz (D)
* Superintendent of Schools: Erin Jones (non-partisan)
* Initiative 1433, higher minimum wage & sick leave: passes
* Initiative 732, carbon tax: barely barely passes
* State legislature: Democrats take back the state senate by one seat, hold onto house control.
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell or some other senior Republican will say something horrifyingly and pre-emptively obstructive within 24 hours should Hillary Clinton win.
posted by R343L at 10:34 PM on November 5, 2016
Yes, my predictions are painfully conservative. I hope to be proved wrong. Also I don't really follow polling predictions very closely and didn't map out by state so electoral votes might not add up right. I just picked numbers close to about where I'm pessimistically expecting it to land (which is to say: a lot lower than being predicted by PEC).
posted by R343L at 10:37 PM on November 5, 2016
posted by R343L at 10:37 PM on November 5, 2016
Oh look! I can actually make it be 300 to 238! http://www.270towin.com/maps/8WBeY
posted by R343L at 10:40 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by R343L at 10:40 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 308 R - 230 D
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% R - 46% D
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes.
WILL YOU CRY? Tears of laughter, maybe.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Dubs.
posted by nicolas léonard sadi carnot at 10:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% R - 46% D
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes.
WILL YOU CRY? Tears of laughter, maybe.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Dubs.
posted by nicolas léonard sadi carnot at 10:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]
I predict a 268-268 electoral vote split with 2 faithless delegates from WA casting their votes for Bernie Sanders. 😈
posted by Justinian at 11:06 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:06 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell or some other senior Republican will say something horrifyingly and pre-emptively obstructive within 24 hours should Hillary Clinton win.
Seconded...the "razor" thin margins this time around scare the pants off me.
No matter who wins...
Grab Bag
A future Justice department will cooperate with three-lettered agency Directors to successfully effect a coup d'état.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 11:07 PM on November 5, 2016
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell or some other senior Republican will say something horrifyingly and pre-emptively obstructive within 24 hours should Hillary Clinton win.
Seconded...the "razor" thin margins this time around scare the pants off me.
No matter who wins...
Grab Bag
A future Justice department will cooperate with three-lettered agency Directors to successfully effect a coup d'état.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 11:07 PM on November 5, 2016
Not going to make a best guess prediction, because I feel very uncertain about the outcome. This is my realistic best-case scenario, what happens when polls fail to account for lots of women abandoning the GOP, generally depressed turnout among republicans and lots of new Hispanic voters. So if I win this thing, really we are all winners.
Presidential Race
Senate Races
Notably Rubio holds on even in this best of all possible worlds, because this is the state that re-elected Rick Scott. The Floridian electorate has an innate respect for an amoral grifter that transcends party affiliation. If instead of courting the Klansman and Anime Nazi vote, Donald had instead just focused on running his campaign like a real estate scam, he would have Florida locked down.
House Races
State Races
Lots of GOP senators have already begun to signal just how much contempt they have for the norms that allow democracies to function, and just how thoroughly they plan to obstruct. The Obama Administration has already been one slow motion constitutional crisis. I don't see how else you could describe the government shutdown or the refusal to confirm executive appointments, especially the unprecedented move to leave a vacancy on the supreme court.
In this scenario, I would give the House 6 months before impeachment proceedings, and even that might be generous. The senate would refuse to confirm anyone for anything.
Clinton loses in 2020, unable to shake the narrative that she is corrupt (because of the impeachment, of course), and ineffectual, because she can't work with Congress or something. Just too divisive, and shrill.
President Tom Cotton is elected on a platform that makes Trump's seem moderate and humane. Justices Kennedy and Breyer retire, Ginsburg dies. The supreme court now has a solid majority of lunatics.
Cotton is reelected in 2024 despite widespread criticism of his decision to use nuclear weapons against civilian targets in Iran. The 2028 election is cancelled.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 12:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]
Presidential Race
- ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 427 D - 105 R
- POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 54% D - 39% R
- DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not really.
- WILL YOU CRY? Teary eyed sigh of relief.
Senate Races
- NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 47
- NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 53
Notably Rubio holds on even in this best of all possible worlds, because this is the state that re-elected Rick Scott. The Floridian electorate has an innate respect for an amoral grifter that transcends party affiliation. If instead of courting the Klansman and Anime Nazi vote, Donald had instead just focused on running his campaign like a real estate scam, he would have Florida locked down.
House Races
- WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Democratic
- BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? single
State Races
- ANY PREDICTIONS? WA carbon tax narrowly fails
- ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Lots of GOP senators have already begun to signal just how much contempt they have for the norms that allow democracies to function, and just how thoroughly they plan to obstruct. The Obama Administration has already been one slow motion constitutional crisis. I don't see how else you could describe the government shutdown or the refusal to confirm executive appointments, especially the unprecedented move to leave a vacancy on the supreme court.
In this scenario, I would give the House 6 months before impeachment proceedings, and even that might be generous. The senate would refuse to confirm anyone for anything.
Clinton loses in 2020, unable to shake the narrative that she is corrupt (because of the impeachment, of course), and ineffectual, because she can't work with Congress or something. Just too divisive, and shrill.
President Tom Cotton is elected on a platform that makes Trump's seem moderate and humane. Justices Kennedy and Breyer retire, Ginsburg dies. The supreme court now has a solid majority of lunatics.
Cotton is reelected in 2024 despite widespread criticism of his decision to use nuclear weapons against civilian targets in Iran. The 2028 election is cancelled.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 12:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 268 D - 270 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% D - 46% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Hillary has class, so yes. If Donald loses, then he will give a speech, but it will be a rambling, incoherent advert for Trump TV and a promise to be "back in 2020".
WILL YOU CRY? Depends on whether I am out of cheese or not, and who I am with, and what we are doing.
Sticking with my much decried map of recent.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double, though the gap will have narrowed
Grab Bag
- Voting will not finish on Tuesday. Too many people will be left in line at too few polling stations, and court orders will force voting in a few places to go into Wednesday.
- By Wednesday morning, areas such as Austin, Ann Arbor, Portland, Brooklyn and others will be out of guacamole.
- Counting will not finish on Wednesday; further disruption, slowness, problems with counters in a variety of places, and again court orders.
- By Wednesday afternoon, the places out of guacamole will be out of avocados and hard liquor.
- A consensus result comes out, gradually, on Thursday. It will be messy. By this time time both the stock market and the dollar have crashed (and hard, in the case of the latter) under the realization that it's a Trump presidency and the Republicans hold the House and Senate.
- British people start to realize that, with their own recently-defenestrated currency, the USA is the only place they can afford to visit now. By next week, they - nearly all of them EU referendum Remain voters - start to arrive in large numbers, filling up Apple stores in their polite manner ("Excuse me", "Terribly sorry to bother you, but...") and buying every MacBook Pro in America because of the huge disparity in cost with the prices in the UK.
- Due to "security concerns", the inauguration is held in the back kitchen of the Russian embassy in DC. It is not televised or recorded.
- Donald passes peacefully away one night in late January. Conspiracy theorists go into overdrive, but they can prove nothing: he's beyond 70 and not in the best of health, so it's "natural causes".
- Seven point six million people made unemployed since the election try to learn how to make tea properly, as serving this to the throngs of newly-arrived British tourists and shoppers is the only growth industry in the USA. One Brit feels finally VINDICATED after EIGHT LONG YEARS of HURT and UNIDENTIFIABLE BAGS OF LEAVES in FOAM CUPS, you KNOW WHICH RESTAURANTS YOU ARE. I love you more than any other country America, but goddam it, tea.
- President Pence takes over. From the look he gives the camera when being sworn in, you realize that this whole several-year batshit crazy election was his perfectly executed plan all along.
- MetaFilter is closed due to most of the mods emigrating, or going underground to run the new resistance movement.
- The dark times begin.
posted by Wordshore at 12:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [11 favorites]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 268 D - 270 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% D - 46% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Hillary has class, so yes. If Donald loses, then he will give a speech, but it will be a rambling, incoherent advert for Trump TV and a promise to be "back in 2020".
WILL YOU CRY? Depends on whether I am out of cheese or not, and who I am with, and what we are doing.
Sticking with my much decried map of recent.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double, though the gap will have narrowed
Grab Bag
- Voting will not finish on Tuesday. Too many people will be left in line at too few polling stations, and court orders will force voting in a few places to go into Wednesday.
- By Wednesday morning, areas such as Austin, Ann Arbor, Portland, Brooklyn and others will be out of guacamole.
- Counting will not finish on Wednesday; further disruption, slowness, problems with counters in a variety of places, and again court orders.
- By Wednesday afternoon, the places out of guacamole will be out of avocados and hard liquor.
- A consensus result comes out, gradually, on Thursday. It will be messy. By this time time both the stock market and the dollar have crashed (and hard, in the case of the latter) under the realization that it's a Trump presidency and the Republicans hold the House and Senate.
- British people start to realize that, with their own recently-defenestrated currency, the USA is the only place they can afford to visit now. By next week, they - nearly all of them EU referendum Remain voters - start to arrive in large numbers, filling up Apple stores in their polite manner ("Excuse me", "Terribly sorry to bother you, but...") and buying every MacBook Pro in America because of the huge disparity in cost with the prices in the UK.
- Due to "security concerns", the inauguration is held in the back kitchen of the Russian embassy in DC. It is not televised or recorded.
- Donald passes peacefully away one night in late January. Conspiracy theorists go into overdrive, but they can prove nothing: he's beyond 70 and not in the best of health, so it's "natural causes".
- Seven point six million people made unemployed since the election try to learn how to make tea properly, as serving this to the throngs of newly-arrived British tourists and shoppers is the only growth industry in the USA. One Brit feels finally VINDICATED after EIGHT LONG YEARS of HURT and UNIDENTIFIABLE BAGS OF LEAVES in FOAM CUPS, you KNOW WHICH RESTAURANTS YOU ARE. I love you more than any other country America, but goddam it, tea.
- President Pence takes over. From the look he gives the camera when being sworn in, you realize that this whole several-year batshit crazy election was his perfectly executed plan all along.
- MetaFilter is closed due to most of the mods emigrating, or going underground to run the new resistance movement.
- The dark times begin.
posted by Wordshore at 12:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [11 favorites]
D/R/other: 417/115/6, 53%/44%/3%
Trump concedes, gracelessly, but he concedes. PBO don't cry.
Senate 51/49 D, House D by single digits.
CA legalizes weed
The Trump surrogates, trying futilely to preserve their careers and/or legacies, start turning on him that very night
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
Trump concedes, gracelessly, but he concedes. PBO don't cry.
Senate 51/49 D, House D by single digits.
CA legalizes weed
The Trump surrogates, trying futilely to preserve their careers and/or legacies, start turning on him that very night
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 260 D - 278 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 46.4% D - 47.8% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, a good one.
WILL YOU CRY? Yes
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: More than now
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: Less than now
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double digit
I should warn you that I am a pessimist.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Leadership change in Australia, the more conservative members being bolstered by Trump's win.
posted by daybeforetheday at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 46.4% D - 47.8% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, a good one.
WILL YOU CRY? Yes
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: More than now
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: Less than now
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double digit
I should warn you that I am a pessimist.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Leadership change in Australia, the more conservative members being bolstered by Trump's win.
posted by daybeforetheday at 12:58 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]
FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT OF CANDIDACY FOR THE 2020 ELECTION: April 2017
posted by clorox at 1:30 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by clorox at 1:30 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
Wordshore, respectfully, I think your understanding of guacamole and avocados may be incomplete.
posted by clorox at 1:42 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by clorox at 1:42 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
One deleted. As a quick note, please pretty much stick to the premise of the post here (voting numbers and results), and put more general discussion about the election and aftermath in the election threads. We're going to be up to our necks in election alligators with just one or two active threads in the blue, so please don't use the "other predictions" as a jumping off point for debates here (or, for god's sake, AARGH EVERYTHING AND EVERYONE IS HORRIBLE NOTHING WILL EVER BE OKAY stuff. Seriously.)
posted by taz (staff) at 1:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 1:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 268 D - 267 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 44.4% D - 44.1% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not needed, goes to Congress
WILL YOU CRY? Huge gasping tears of laughter
Massachusetts passes weed so we won't care
(this 538 crazy suggestion about Evan McGuffin goes viral and is all we hear about for two months on CNN)
posted by sammyo at 3:13 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 44.4% D - 44.1% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not needed, goes to Congress
WILL YOU CRY? Huge gasping tears of laughter
Massachusetts passes weed so we won't care
(this 538 crazy suggestion about Evan McGuffin goes viral and is all we hear about for two months on CNN)
posted by sammyo at 3:13 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 380 D - 158 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No - not on election night.
WILL YOU CRY? Probably.
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? 17 seats.
posted by rbellon at 5:34 AM on November 6, 2016
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No - not on election night.
WILL YOU CRY? Probably.
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? 17 seats.
posted by rbellon at 5:34 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 337 D - 195 R - 6 for McMullin
[Taking a chance on AZ going blue, thanks to the huge nationwide Latinx groundswell. And I really want Egg to win Utah. The map's a little less fun without him, and I'm sad 270towin doesn't have purple for Utah.]
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 45% R - 3% Indies (For the states that record any and every write-in, Harambe will beat Stein.)
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No. Trump will double down on rigged for a few days. He'll insist on recounts but won't actually file any suits. Eventually, he'll just fade away. He thinks he can hold on to his brand, supporters & customers even as a loser, but he'll be wrong.
WILL YOU CRY? Maybe. My niece, who is a madame president (of the 11th grade) herself, will be with me on election night. In fact, at our little family party, I'll be the only male present. Not counting Pops since he's just a cat. I'm going to be a little tear-y for the sake of all these women I love.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
State Races
Kansas will vote to retain all Supreme Court judges. This will be yet another slap in Brownback's face, since he and his Koch friends were hoping to empty out the Court as revenge for the Court blocking their deep budget cuts in education.
Kansas will also elect a big enough mix of moderate Republicans and Democrats to the state legislature to create an anti-Brownback majority faction, which will not be enough to overturn vetoes, but at least enough to prevent Brownback from doing anything more substantial than appointing a gecko as the state lizard.
Trump will win Kansas, but by 5% or less. Which is a razor-thin margin by Kansas standards.
Grab Bag
Violence will be minimal. There will be lots of bluster, but when push-comes-to-shove, the Trump supporters will content themselves with pacing around with their guns holstered and yelling at anyone who looks like they can't (physically) fight back. It's one thing to yell about revolution. It's a completely different thing to risk your middle class income, house and possessions for something with a very limited possible payout.
posted by honestcoyote at 5:45 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 337 D - 195 R - 6 for McMullin
[Taking a chance on AZ going blue, thanks to the huge nationwide Latinx groundswell. And I really want Egg to win Utah. The map's a little less fun without him, and I'm sad 270towin doesn't have purple for Utah.]
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 45% R - 3% Indies (For the states that record any and every write-in, Harambe will beat Stein.)
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No. Trump will double down on rigged for a few days. He'll insist on recounts but won't actually file any suits. Eventually, he'll just fade away. He thinks he can hold on to his brand, supporters & customers even as a loser, but he'll be wrong.
WILL YOU CRY? Maybe. My niece, who is a madame president (of the 11th grade) herself, will be with me on election night. In fact, at our little family party, I'll be the only male present. Not counting Pops since he's just a cat. I'm going to be a little tear-y for the sake of all these women I love.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
State Races
Kansas will vote to retain all Supreme Court judges. This will be yet another slap in Brownback's face, since he and his Koch friends were hoping to empty out the Court as revenge for the Court blocking their deep budget cuts in education.
Kansas will also elect a big enough mix of moderate Republicans and Democrats to the state legislature to create an anti-Brownback majority faction, which will not be enough to overturn vetoes, but at least enough to prevent Brownback from doing anything more substantial than appointing a gecko as the state lizard.
Trump will win Kansas, but by 5% or less. Which is a razor-thin margin by Kansas standards.
Grab Bag
Violence will be minimal. There will be lots of bluster, but when push-comes-to-shove, the Trump supporters will content themselves with pacing around with their guns holstered and yelling at anyone who looks like they can't (physically) fight back. It's one thing to yell about revolution. It's a completely different thing to risk your middle class income, house and possessions for something with a very limited possible payout.
posted by honestcoyote at 5:45 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
Hillary wins and its decided by 11pm election night. Probably before 10, but I'm hedging here.
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 291 D - 246 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 49% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Trump will concede, but only after a lot of drama, lasting at least a day, possibly a week. I'm betting 3 days.
WILL YOU CRY? (optional)
No, my tears are for later when the Republicans get their full anti-Hillary machine up and running.
The Senate stays Republican, but barely.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:51 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 291 D - 246 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 49% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Trump will concede, but only after a lot of drama, lasting at least a day, possibly a week. I'm betting 3 days.
WILL YOU CRY? (optional)
No, my tears are for later when the Republicans get their full anti-Hillary machine up and running.
The Senate stays Republican, but barely.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:51 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 335 D - 203 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 53% D - 42 % R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y. Trump wants this over more than anyone else in his bubble. Will hold out until midnight EST. Flurry of 3am tweets thanking supporters (love the vets) and roasting GOP. GrudgeFest 2017 begins.
WILL YOU CRY? Barf, more likely
State surprises: GA, MO. FL goes Clinton. TX gets everyone excited but, dude, it's TX
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Party of Trump™
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
State Races
Toomey wins, dies of natural causes shortly thereafter, is replaced by party yutz.
Grab Bag
Trump's accusers grow, media picks up story as a way to keep Trump clicks clicking, Trump loses 50% of "fortune" swimming in shit, dies in 2018 because he got bored. Media re-hashes 2016 election for five months.
posted by petebest at 5:52 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 335 D - 203 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 53% D - 42 % R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y. Trump wants this over more than anyone else in his bubble. Will hold out until midnight EST. Flurry of 3am tweets thanking supporters (love the vets) and roasting GOP. GrudgeFest 2017 begins.
WILL YOU CRY? Barf, more likely
State surprises: GA, MO. FL goes Clinton. TX gets everyone excited but, dude, it's TX
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Party of Trump™
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
State Races
Toomey wins, dies of natural causes shortly thereafter, is replaced by party yutz.
Grab Bag
Trump's accusers grow, media picks up story as a way to keep Trump clicks clicking, Trump loses 50% of "fortune" swimming in shit, dies in 2018 because he got bored. Media re-hashes 2016 election for five months.
posted by petebest at 5:52 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 388 D - 150 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 46% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Trump does not concede in November. The RNC concedes on his behalf and are ignored/rebuked
WILL YOU CRY? like, probably?
Map Prediction
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
(includes independents caucasing with Dem)
Senate Race Map Prediction
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? FL will pass medical marijuana
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Paul Ryan will resign as speaker
posted by penduluum at 6:03 AM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 388 D - 150 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 46% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Trump does not concede in November. The RNC concedes on his behalf and are ignored/rebuked
WILL YOU CRY? like, probably?
Map Prediction
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
(includes independents caucasing with Dem)
Senate Race Map Prediction
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? FL will pass medical marijuana
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Paul Ryan will resign as speaker
posted by penduluum at 6:03 AM on November 6, 2016
EV: 386 D / 151 R
Map
(No McMuffin, red GA, red NH)
Pop vote:
51 D / 44 R
ETA: concession speech!
Of course this fucker gives an ambiguous speech that sounds like a call to arms. Domestic violence and domestic terrorism both rise.
Senate:
51 D + I / 49 R
House:
R by single digits and their crazy fucking fingertips
Other predictions:
They'll try to impeach her, because they must continue to feed the beast, and it will cost them Congress. If we're lucky the Dems can find a way to deal with the FBI at the same time. We get a Dem SC for the next 40 years, and the SC ends the gerrymander party. State legislatures become slowly less fucked, but not entirely unfucked. (Actually really worried about the state legislatures thing.) The GOP civil war is less a war and more of a meek surrender to the craziest of the crazy right wing, and they become a regional party for federal elections by 2024.
No idea what rises in their place.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2016
Map
(No McMuffin, red GA, red NH)
Pop vote:
51 D / 44 R
ETA: concession speech!
Of course this fucker gives an ambiguous speech that sounds like a call to arms. Domestic violence and domestic terrorism both rise.
Senate:
51 D + I / 49 R
House:
R by single digits and their crazy fucking fingertips
Other predictions:
They'll try to impeach her, because they must continue to feed the beast, and it will cost them Congress. If we're lucky the Dems can find a way to deal with the FBI at the same time. We get a Dem SC for the next 40 years, and the SC ends the gerrymander party. State legislatures become slowly less fucked, but not entirely unfucked. (Actually really worried about the state legislatures thing.) The GOP civil war is less a war and more of a meek surrender to the craziest of the crazy right wing, and they become a regional party for federal elections by 2024.
No idea what rises in their place.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2016
I am terrible at predictions and the things I predict have a long history of not happening...so in that spirit I will predict a Trump win with 538 EVs and 99% of the vote.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:37 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:37 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]
MOOD: optimistic
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 429 D - 103 R - 6 I (Map)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 41% R - 7% Other
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? 90% he gives a speech, 10% it's a concession.
WILL YOU CRY? Buckets.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
(include Independents in Dem)
Map
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double-digit but barely (< 15)
SPECIFIC RACES:
Gottheimer defeats Garrett in NJ-5
Teachout defeats Faso in NY-19
Shea-Porter defeats Guinta in NH-1
Applegate defeats Issa in CA-49
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? Pretty sure my home state of MA is getting legal weed this year.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? There will be some celebratory harmonica playing. You know by who.
posted by galaxy rise at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 429 D - 103 R - 6 I (Map)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 52% D - 41% R - 7% Other
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? 90% he gives a speech, 10% it's a concession.
WILL YOU CRY? Buckets.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
(include Independents in Dem)
Map
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double-digit but barely (< 15)
SPECIFIC RACES:
Gottheimer defeats Garrett in NJ-5
Teachout defeats Faso in NY-19
Shea-Porter defeats Guinta in NH-1
Applegate defeats Issa in CA-49
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? Pretty sure my home state of MA is getting legal weed this year.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? There will be some celebratory harmonica playing. You know by who.
posted by galaxy rise at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
RE the $50 donation... is there a way to make it to the IRS?
posted by carsonb at 6:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by carsonb at 6:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
In the comments, please tell me:
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Trump speech with none of the typical aspects of a concession speech, but not quite openly declaring the election stolen.
WILL YOU CRY? One way or the other
(feel free to make and link an electoral vote map of your prediction at 270towin.com, or list your state breakdowns)
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
posted by Horace Rumpole at 6:57 AM on November 6, 2016
Much as I would prefer some of the blowout predictions above with 400+ Clinton EVs, I highly doubt that will happen with zero number of polls suggesting anything like that at this point. (And on preview, I didn't look at Horace Rumpole's before working this up.) So:
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R (map)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.0% D - 45.6% R - 4.1% Lib - .8% Ind (McMullin) - .5% Green
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? (Y/N/ambiguous/concession speech by someone not the losing candidate) - ambiguous
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? single
posted by beagle at 7:05 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R (map)
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.0% D - 45.6% R - 4.1% Lib - .8% Ind (McMullin) - .5% Green
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? (Y/N/ambiguous/concession speech by someone not the losing candidate) - ambiguous
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? single
posted by beagle at 7:05 AM on November 6, 2016
Yeah, I specifically didn't look at any other predictions before doing mine and I sure seem to have nailed the conventional wisdom.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 7:07 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Horace Rumpole at 7:07 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
322 D - 216 R is emerging as a clear favorite. TTTCS.
posted by dis_integration at 7:15 AM on November 6, 2016
posted by dis_integration at 7:15 AM on November 6, 2016
and I sure seem to have nailed the conventional wisdom.
I love how " ambiguous rambling word-salad" is the clear favorite on the concession speech.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:19 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
I love how " ambiguous rambling word-salad" is the clear favorite on the concession speech.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 7:19 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
We have a pool at work based on who wins various states/senate races and the options for Utah were Clinton, Trump, and McMuffin and I said "what if I think Mitt Romney is going to win through write-in votes?" and Zach from Policy offered me 50:1 odds so if Mitt Romney wins Utah I'll get $100 and take everyone out for a drink to celebrate my genius.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 7:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 7:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 333 D - 205 R (my custom map) -- Arizona a surprise pickup for HRC. Trump barely misses out on his private goal of beating Romney's 206.
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.5% D - 46.5% R - 3% L - 1% G
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Sort of. Announces the election was rigged, but that he's not going to bother contesting it even though he could EASILY WIN in court, and that he's sick of trying to help America if it doesn't want him, do they know how much he spent on this race, etc.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50 (OH, NC, NH, IN)
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50 (IL, NV, MO, WI, PA)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Rep
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Governorship of VT won by the Republican
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Paul Ryan out as Speaker by Christmas
Merrick Garland confirmed in lame duck session
posted by saturday_morning at 7:35 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 333 D - 205 R (my custom map) -- Arizona a surprise pickup for HRC. Trump barely misses out on his private goal of beating Romney's 206.
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.5% D - 46.5% R - 3% L - 1% G
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Sort of. Announces the election was rigged, but that he's not going to bother contesting it even though he could EASILY WIN in court, and that he's sick of trying to help America if it doesn't want him, do they know how much he spent on this race, etc.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50 (OH, NC, NH, IN)
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50 (IL, NV, MO, WI, PA)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Rep
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Governorship of VT won by the Republican
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Paul Ryan out as Speaker by Christmas
Merrick Garland confirmed in lame duck session
posted by saturday_morning at 7:35 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
350 D / 188 R
(Clinton gets AZ, GA, NE-02, NC, FL, WI; loses IA, OH, ME-02)
Popular vote percentages (Clinton / Trump / Johnson / Other): 50.1 / 44.1 / 3.6 / 2.2
Ambiguous but uncharacteristically subdued speech by Trump which is read as concession by media; other R leadership also concede publicly
Dems flip IL, WI, PA, NH, MO, FL, NC, keep NV and CO
Repubs flip no seats, hold IN, KY, AZ, GA
53 (D+I) / 47 R
Republicans keep house by double digits, 233-202
D governor: NC, VT
R governor: IN, WV, NH
Grab Bag: mixture of real (•) and jokey (*) predictions
• Pres. winner is called by 11 EST.
• I don't cry until I read something somebody says on the MeFi election thread.
* Which I don't finish reading until Nov. 16.
• Nobody dies on election night (due to election), though several people are assaulted, mostly but not entirely by Trump supporters.
• Obama withdraws Garland nomination on or before 15 November.
• Everybody involved with the Trump campaign gets sued, mostly by other people involved with the Trump campaign.
• CNN hires Kellyanne Conway.
• Trump dies of natural causes before the 2020 election.
• Melania "writes" a book about Trump and the election shortly thereafter, which does well despite . . .
* . . . being partly copied from other books about Trump and other books about other elections.
• Meredith turns out not to exist. Ditto John Barry. (In both cases, there is an actual person by that name, but s/he had nothing to do with Melania's speech or Summer Zervos, respectively.)
• Trump TV hires Katrina Pierson.
• Trump TV successful enough to tear Fox News apart, but goes bankrupt before 2026.
• Scion brand hotels flop, Trumplings rebrand them a second time and that incarnation does better. The Trump brand remains toxic well into the 2030s.
• Donald Jr. runs for some smallish office in or before 2020, also loses.
* Eric Trump teams up with Peter Thiel to start business, something something harvesting and drinking the blood of virgins.
*? Barron Trump turns out to in fact be really good at the cyber.
• Clinton's actual biggest problem in her first term are the Russians, not the Republicans. Though there's increasing overlap between the two.
• Clinton replaces 3 SC justices before the midterm elections.
• Republicans try to impeach Clinton between 2018-2020, fail.
• Michelle Obama never does run for office, because she meant it when she said she didn't want to do that.
* MeFites, traumatized by the election and adrift without the election threads to commiserate in, turn to delinquency and crime.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 7:59 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 304 D - 234 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Mainstream Republicans will try to call it that.
WILL YOU CRY? Oh, yeah. This thing's making me an emotional wreck--the last Hillary commercial I watched made me tear up a little.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Marijuana passes in AZ, CA, FL, MA, ME, NV, fails in AR, MT, and ND.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Trump seizes on something that a) looks a little bit like voting irregularity, if you're an idiot and b) would not have affected the final outcome of the race. Republicans don't shut up about it for the next twenty years.
posted by box at 8:03 AM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 304 D - 234 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Mainstream Republicans will try to call it that.
WILL YOU CRY? Oh, yeah. This thing's making me an emotional wreck--the last Hillary commercial I watched made me tear up a little.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Marijuana passes in AZ, CA, FL, MA, ME, NV, fails in AR, MT, and ND.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Trump seizes on something that a) looks a little bit like voting irregularity, if you're an idiot and b) would not have affected the final outcome of the race. Republicans don't shut up about it for the next twenty years.
posted by box at 8:03 AM on November 6, 2016
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
Mass shootings at polling-places across the South and MidWest.
I put this down because I'm always wrong about this stuff if I express it.
posted by pompomtom at 8:37 AM on November 6, 2016
Mass shootings at polling-places across the South and MidWest.
I put this down because I'm always wrong about this stuff if I express it.
posted by pompomtom at 8:37 AM on November 6, 2016
(I recently looked at the pre-election season prediction thread. Two astute people guessed Tim Kaine for the Dem Veep, but no one expected the Hoosier with the Spanish Inquisition fire in his eyes, Mike Pence.)
You can lump me in with the 322-216 people, and I will cry.
posted by puddledork at 9:03 AM on November 6, 2016
You can lump me in with the 322-216 people, and I will cry.
posted by puddledork at 9:03 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 334 D - 204 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 48% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, but it will come after the victory speech, and not on Tuesday.
WILL YOU CRY? No, but I will be amazed at the results either way.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? +12
posted by GhostintheMachine at 9:11 AM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 334 D - 204 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 48% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, but it will come after the victory speech, and not on Tuesday.
WILL YOU CRY? No, but I will be amazed at the results either way.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? +12
posted by GhostintheMachine at 9:11 AM on November 6, 2016
Oh also! 65%+ national turn out.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2016
posted by schadenfrau at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2016
I think The Donald might actually make a concession speech in a timely and adult manner. This not because he's got any track record for being timely & adult, but just because it will be his last, best chance to market himself, and that's what this has always been about. Plus he's going to want to have Hillary as on-board as possible for whatever corporate shenanigans he's going to get into thereafter. (o'wise I predict low voter turnout, serious electoral college shellacking for The Donald (<200 votes) but grimdark senate.)
posted by chavenet at 9:20 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 9:20 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 300 D - 163 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: More than enough% D - Less than enough% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No. He will never concede. He refuses to believe he is a genuine loser. Instead, everything is rigged. He will vow to sue everyone. He will broadcast coded messages to his followers that will result in bad things I don't want to think about.
WILL YOU CRY? In relief? I have not cried in 13 years. But maybe.
posted by pracowity at 9:45 AM on November 6, 2016
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: More than enough% D - Less than enough% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No. He will never concede. He refuses to believe he is a genuine loser. Instead, everything is rigged. He will vow to sue everyone. He will broadcast coded messages to his followers that will result in bad things I don't want to think about.
WILL YOU CRY? In relief? I have not cried in 13 years. But maybe.
posted by pracowity at 9:45 AM on November 6, 2016
I think The Donald might actually make a concession speech in a timely and adult manner. This not because he's got any track record for being timely & adult, but just because it will be his last, best chance to market himself, and that's what this has always been about.
I think he will take one of his rare reflective turns and talk about his mom and dad, which he does once in a while. He will get it over with, then go back to Trump Tower and slowly work himself into an angry lather, and start tweeting ragey things at about 6 AM - recriminations for everyone who worked with him or against him, including the American people as a whole.
posted by sallybrown at 10:00 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]
I think he will take one of his rare reflective turns and talk about his mom and dad, which he does once in a while. He will get it over with, then go back to Trump Tower and slowly work himself into an angry lather, and start tweeting ragey things at about 6 AM - recriminations for everyone who worked with him or against him, including the American people as a whole.
posted by sallybrown at 10:00 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 358 D - 180 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 48% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Trump gives a meandering and confusing speech that no one understands. When Hannity interviews him and asks him to eleborate he passive aggresively congratulates Clinton but says he will continue to make america great again!!
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? <1>
State Races
Marijuana wins big.
Grab Bag
Paul Ryan decides to grow a tiny tiny soul / brain and congratulates President elect Clinton. Is removed as speaker in the lame duck by the ravenous horde out for blood.
Comey stays on as FBI director. Huge numbers of field agents are quietly retired over the next few years.
Crazy Possibilities
Democrats join with the remaining sane Republicans in the house to elect a center right speaker and cut out the freedom caucus.
Hillary pardons Trump for all crimes in an attempt to move forward
posted by Glibpaxman at 10:02 AM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 358 D - 180 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 48% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Trump gives a meandering and confusing speech that no one understands. When Hannity interviews him and asks him to eleborate he passive aggresively congratulates Clinton but says he will continue to make america great again!!
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? <1>
State Races
Marijuana wins big.
Grab Bag
Paul Ryan decides to grow a tiny tiny soul / brain and congratulates President elect Clinton. Is removed as speaker in the lame duck by the ravenous horde out for blood.
Comey stays on as FBI director. Huge numbers of field agents are quietly retired over the next few years.
Crazy Possibilities
Democrats join with the remaining sane Republicans in the house to elect a center right speaker and cut out the freedom caucus.
Hillary pardons Trump for all crimes in an attempt to move forward
posted by Glibpaxman at 10:02 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 422 D - 116 R -
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.9% D - 43% R - 4% L - 1% G - 1% Egg
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? "So the media have all decided that Hillary will be the next president." Very Serious Pundits laud Trump for fulfilling the minimum obligations for the loser in a political race. Others point out that it sounds more like an advertisement for Trump TV with dogwhistles that will inspire at least one wingnut to start shooting people. Trump surrogates, when pressed by Wolf Blitzer, disagree about whether he has actually conceded.
WILL YOU CRY? It's just dusty in here.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/zGWZw (Clinton matches or exceeds high end projections. The big surprise is that the Egg and R split Utah evenly enough for Clinton to eek out a victory there.)
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R, but Ryan is replaced by a red-meat Republican whose obstinance and lack of diplomacy leave the few moderate R's feeling unwelcome in their own party, allowing them to be peeled off on specific votes by a wily White House.
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Low double digits
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? VT gov - R. In 2020 he tries to run for president based on being an early NeverTrumper who can appeal to moderates. Gets eaten alive by more ruthless politicians.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? R's gain one Senate seat in 2018 (would have been more, but they continue to pick duds and teabaggers in their primaries who are unappealing to a general electorate). Despite the new R majority, Clinton outplays them, picking up crossover votes on key issues and making them look like chumps. D's regain majority for her second term. In 2019 the SC (with two new Clinton appointees) strike down some aspects of gerrymandering. New-style gerrymandering is less effective, leading to a slim D majority in the House in 2022, after which political coalitions realign in surprising ways.
posted by Tsuga at 10:26 AM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 422 D - 116 R -
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.9% D - 43% R - 4% L - 1% G - 1% Egg
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? "So the media have all decided that Hillary will be the next president." Very Serious Pundits laud Trump for fulfilling the minimum obligations for the loser in a political race. Others point out that it sounds more like an advertisement for Trump TV with dogwhistles that will inspire at least one wingnut to start shooting people. Trump surrogates, when pressed by Wolf Blitzer, disagree about whether he has actually conceded.
WILL YOU CRY? It's just dusty in here.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/zGWZw (Clinton matches or exceeds high end projections. The big surprise is that the Egg and R split Utah evenly enough for Clinton to eek out a victory there.)
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R, but Ryan is replaced by a red-meat Republican whose obstinance and lack of diplomacy leave the few moderate R's feeling unwelcome in their own party, allowing them to be peeled off on specific votes by a wily White House.
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Low double digits
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? VT gov - R. In 2020 he tries to run for president based on being an early NeverTrumper who can appeal to moderates. Gets eaten alive by more ruthless politicians.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? R's gain one Senate seat in 2018 (would have been more, but they continue to pick duds and teabaggers in their primaries who are unappealing to a general electorate). Despite the new R majority, Clinton outplays them, picking up crossover votes on key issues and making them look like chumps. D's regain majority for her second term. In 2019 the SC (with two new Clinton appointees) strike down some aspects of gerrymandering. New-style gerrymandering is less effective, leading to a slim D majority in the House in 2022, after which political coalitions realign in surprising ways.
posted by Tsuga at 10:26 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: Clinton 351, Trump 181, McMullin 6
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: Clinton 50, Trump 44
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, but it will suck.
WILL YOU CRY? Probably, though I hope to be asleep as it happens (Florida and North Carolina will be called by around 22:00 local time / 04:00 CET, at which point It's All Over) SRF3 will give a news update when my alarm goes off at 07:00). If I *can't* sleep, and follow in realtime. I'll definitely cry, but I'll have to be quiet about it.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double digit. Gerrymandering is a hell of a drug.
State Races
Texas and Georgia will both ultimately go red, but will be much closer than expected, and called late.
posted by Vetinari at 10:30 AM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: Clinton 351, Trump 181, McMullin 6
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: Clinton 50, Trump 44
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, but it will suck.
WILL YOU CRY? Probably, though I hope to be asleep as it happens (Florida and North Carolina will be called by around 22:00 local time / 04:00 CET, at which point It's All Over) SRF3 will give a news update when my alarm goes off at 07:00). If I *can't* sleep, and follow in realtime. I'll definitely cry, but I'll have to be quiet about it.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double digit. Gerrymandering is a hell of a drug.
State Races
Texas and Georgia will both ultimately go red, but will be much closer than expected, and called late.
posted by Vetinari at 10:30 AM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: ### 351-186-1.
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 55% D - 41% R 4% other
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y
WILL YOU CRY? N
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? DOUBLE
State Races
No predictions
Grab Bag
Trump indicted
posted by Ironmouth at 10:38 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: ### 351-186-1.
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 55% D - 41% R 4% other
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y
WILL YOU CRY? N
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? DOUBLE
State Races
No predictions
Grab Bag
Trump indicted
posted by Ironmouth at 10:38 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 334 D - 204 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.9% D - 46.0% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y
WILL YOU CRY? All out of tears
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double-Digit
Grab Bag
War on Christmas starts November 9th, Trump wins it but freezes to death protecting a plastic Jesus from Atheist snowstorm
posted by lefty lucky cat at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 334 D - 204 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49.9% D - 46.0% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y
WILL YOU CRY? All out of tears
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double-Digit
Grab Bag
War on Christmas starts November 9th, Trump wins it but freezes to death protecting a plastic Jesus from Atheist snowstorm
posted by lefty lucky cat at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 291 D - 247 R
(like bb, and likely from the same source, except sum to 538)
posted by andrewcooke at 12:02 PM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 291 D - 247 R
(like bb, and likely from the same source, except sum to 538)
posted by andrewcooke at 12:02 PM on November 6, 2016
If you all tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing I will be SO MAD.
posted by MsMolly at 12:05 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by MsMolly at 12:05 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
I have one grab bag prediction: there will be a spike in divorces over the next year.
posted by medusa at 2:55 PM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by medusa at 2:55 PM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 425 D - 113R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 53% D - 40% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? : Yes, Trump at the night of asswhoopin will admit defeat, claim it's rigged, but it's over and he "graciously loses", as if he's doing the world the greatest favor. He'll push directly to Trump TV.
WILL YOU CRY? Probably.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/KjOnO
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS:49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS:51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans.
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Only by 5 seats.
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Oregon: Measure 97 fails. Democrats win State House, Senate, and state offices except Secretary of State.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Paul Ryan steps down on Nov 9 as Speaker.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 3:42 PM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 425 D - 113R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 53% D - 40% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? : Yes, Trump at the night of asswhoopin will admit defeat, claim it's rigged, but it's over and he "graciously loses", as if he's doing the world the greatest favor. He'll push directly to Trump TV.
WILL YOU CRY? Probably.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/KjOnO
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS:49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS:51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans.
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Only by 5 seats.
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Oregon: Measure 97 fails. Democrats win State House, Senate, and state offices except Secretary of State.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Paul Ryan steps down on Nov 9 as Speaker.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 3:42 PM on November 6, 2016
I predict a unanimous popular vote but a split electoral vote
posted by aubilenon at 3:51 PM on November 6, 2016
posted by aubilenon at 3:51 PM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 290 D - 248 R map
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 46% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? ambiguous
WILL YOU CRY? maybe
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? single
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
WA: i732 loses closely, 1433 loses, 1464 loses, 1491 loses
1501 ???? depends how many people read past the title
735 I don't care
Prop 1 passes ~55%*, Walkinshaw defeats Jayapal, Inslee defeats that dick Bryant, Reykdal defeats Jones
Grab Bag
Seattle can't get up a celebration when Hillary is declared because everyone is either passed out drunk by then or just too tired and angry at having put up with all the racist deluded shit of this election for seven years. It'll be a night for angry drunks from ~8pm - 10pm and then everyone will give up.
*This has to pass so I don't have to burn some friendships over their stupid no votes
posted by the agents of KAOS at 4:33 PM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 290 D - 248 R map
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 46% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? ambiguous
WILL YOU CRY? maybe
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? single
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
WA: i732 loses closely, 1433 loses, 1464 loses, 1491 loses
1501 ???? depends how many people read past the title
735 I don't care
Prop 1 passes ~55%*, Walkinshaw defeats Jayapal, Inslee defeats that dick Bryant, Reykdal defeats Jones
Grab Bag
Seattle can't get up a celebration when Hillary is declared because everyone is either passed out drunk by then or just too tired and angry at having put up with all the racist deluded shit of this election for seven years. It'll be a night for angry drunks from ~8pm - 10pm and then everyone will give up.
*This has to pass so I don't have to burn some friendships over their stupid no votes
posted by the agents of KAOS at 4:33 PM on November 6, 2016
The Cubs trade most of their championship team to save money.
Sorry, that's the Yankees.
posted by 4ster at 4:58 PM on November 6, 2016
Sorry, that's the Yankees.
posted by 4ster at 4:58 PM on November 6, 2016
Just as CNN is about to announce their perspective winner, a mass power outage afflicts the 48 contiguous states. Alaska and Hawaii viewers cling to their TV thinking that their line has been severed, meanwhile in the contiguous US mass riots begin. The first city to burn is Oakridge, TN - because - well - Oakridge... Within 4 hours the national guard is deployed by most governors and a majority of the bell tower snipers are taken down before morning. By morning, the looting has begun in most major cities; however this is strictly rumor since cell reception has become spotty.
After five days, Great Britain sends their first aid convoy overseas and for the first time in over 233 years, British forces march into the cities along the eastern seaboard. By January, Britain annexes their original 13 colonies, securing the border and granting citizenship to all those who decide to stay. Outside the wall, the US burns - a war-torn wasteland.
Mexico, seizing the opportunity, takes California. Washington and Oregon request to be part of the package. For some inexplicable reason, they do not take Texas.
Raul Castro lands in Florida, and war commences between Britain and Cuba. By 2018, Cuba controls the gulf coast of Florida up to Orlando and part of the pan handle. Britain and Cuba sign a peace treaty in late June.
Canada, seemingly not wanting to be left out, succeeds Quebec to the former United States, which have now burned for nearly two years straight - but hey - Canada no longer has to wonder whether Quebec wants to be part of them anymore.
Anyways, that's my prediction...
posted by Nanukthedog at 4:59 PM on November 6, 2016
After five days, Great Britain sends their first aid convoy overseas and for the first time in over 233 years, British forces march into the cities along the eastern seaboard. By January, Britain annexes their original 13 colonies, securing the border and granting citizenship to all those who decide to stay. Outside the wall, the US burns - a war-torn wasteland.
Mexico, seizing the opportunity, takes California. Washington and Oregon request to be part of the package. For some inexplicable reason, they do not take Texas.
Raul Castro lands in Florida, and war commences between Britain and Cuba. By 2018, Cuba controls the gulf coast of Florida up to Orlando and part of the pan handle. Britain and Cuba sign a peace treaty in late June.
Canada, seemingly not wanting to be left out, succeeds Quebec to the former United States, which have now burned for nearly two years straight - but hey - Canada no longer has to wonder whether Quebec wants to be part of them anymore.
Anyways, that's my prediction...
posted by Nanukthedog at 4:59 PM on November 6, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 333 D - 205 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 58% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No, Pence gives the speech, followed by some kind of rant from Donnie questioning the legitimacy.
WILL YOU CRY? very likely.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS:33
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 67
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
State Races
Ayotte loses in NH
Grab Bag
Mass ballot questions: Casinos win, charter schools lose, chickens win, cannabis wins
posted by vrakatar at 5:10 PM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 333 D - 205 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 58% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? No, Pence gives the speech, followed by some kind of rant from Donnie questioning the legitimacy.
WILL YOU CRY? very likely.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS:33
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 67
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? GOP
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
State Races
Ayotte loses in NH
Grab Bag
Mass ballot questions: Casinos win, charter schools lose, chickens win, cannabis wins
posted by vrakatar at 5:10 PM on November 6, 2016
Hillary 300 EC votes.
Senate 50/50
Trump is going to get up there and ramble because his team just won't give a fuck anymore (probably haven't been paid in weeks anyways). He'll make a non-concession concession.
Nanukthedog: "Canada, seemingly not wanting to be left out, succeeds Quebec to the former United States"
Quebec is as far left of Massachusetts as Massachusetts is to Kansas; no way the rump non-coastal USA takes them on.
posted by Mitheral at 6:25 PM on November 6, 2016
Senate 50/50
Trump is going to get up there and ramble because his team just won't give a fuck anymore (probably haven't been paid in weeks anyways). He'll make a non-concession concession.
Nanukthedog: "Canada, seemingly not wanting to be left out, succeeds Quebec to the former United States"
Quebec is as far left of Massachusetts as Massachusetts is to Kansas; no way the rump non-coastal USA takes them on.
posted by Mitheral at 6:25 PM on November 6, 2016
I'm sorry. I can't read this thread, it just confuses my eyeballs.
But this, this: (McMuFinn) just tickles me so much more than it really should. Like, guffaw out loud. Every time. Sorry McMullin & Finn. Really, I apologize.
Clinton will be our president. Hands down, no question. The Senate? Dicey, hoping for the best. I have no fucks to give whether Donald concedes or not. LOSER. SAD!
I had a really difficult choice to make about WA's carbon tax initiative. Lowering the sales tax sounds great, my little burg is at 8.9%. It's taking away the sales tax exemption for out of state customers that concerns me. We're a stateline community. Not that big a deal when WalMart is your destination, but we sell big-ticket items (trailers) and a LOT of our business is from out-of-state. I couldn't find anything to determine whether the general vehicles exemption for all other states/provinces would stay in place. If we lost that, our business would be devastated. We would have to close the doors. Honestly: OR buyers paying thousands for WA sales tax? Yeah, right. I voted no. I do not feel good about my vote, but it's what I personally had to do. I hope it comes up again soon and the parties involved come to a consensus, that really curtails carbon emissions and gives lower-income folks a break, without penalizing businesses that depend on out-of-state shoppers. This was just a mess, IMHO.
posted by wallabear at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2016
But this, this: (McMuFinn) just tickles me so much more than it really should. Like, guffaw out loud. Every time. Sorry McMullin & Finn. Really, I apologize.
Clinton will be our president. Hands down, no question. The Senate? Dicey, hoping for the best. I have no fucks to give whether Donald concedes or not. LOSER. SAD!
I had a really difficult choice to make about WA's carbon tax initiative. Lowering the sales tax sounds great, my little burg is at 8.9%. It's taking away the sales tax exemption for out of state customers that concerns me. We're a stateline community. Not that big a deal when WalMart is your destination, but we sell big-ticket items (trailers) and a LOT of our business is from out-of-state. I couldn't find anything to determine whether the general vehicles exemption for all other states/provinces would stay in place. If we lost that, our business would be devastated. We would have to close the doors. Honestly: OR buyers paying thousands for WA sales tax? Yeah, right. I voted no. I do not feel good about my vote, but it's what I personally had to do. I hope it comes up again soon and the parties involved come to a consensus, that really curtails carbon emissions and gives lower-income folks a break, without penalizing businesses that depend on out-of-state shoppers. This was just a mess, IMHO.
posted by wallabear at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2016
The odds are against me, but I'm going heavy optimist:
Electoral College: 421D / 111R / 6E(Egg) My Map
Popular Vote: 53% D / 42%R
Concession Speech : No
Senate: 52D/48R
House: D, single digits
posted by notbuddha at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
Electoral College: 421D / 111R / 6E(Egg) My Map
Popular Vote: 53% D / 42%R
Concession Speech : No
Senate: 52D/48R
House: D, single digits
posted by notbuddha at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 352 D - 186 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 50% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y
WILL YOU CRY?
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 47
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 53
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
SINGLE
posted by Rumple at 9:15 PM on November 6, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 352 D - 186 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 50% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Y
WILL YOU CRY?
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 47
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 53
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
SINGLE
posted by Rumple at 9:15 PM on November 6, 2016
You're all so damn reasonable.
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 417 D - 121 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 63% D - 52% R (Trump voter fraud revealed in early December)
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, and it's Big League self righteous, blaming the loss on everyone who worked for him and the voters who were too weak to vote for him.
WILL YOU CRY? Oh no, I will throw my head back and laugh the laugh of the self-righteously victorious.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 46
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 54
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single.
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? Everybody agrees that smoking pot is pretty damn harmless for adults and a good source of tax revenue.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Trump's comeuppance is long and exquisite. Namely, Daddy Warlocks' PAC (I know, who knew!) sue's Trump for not fulfilling his contract and as The D.W.PAC is funded by a for-real billionaire who is for real pissed about the way Trump screwed it all up an actual suit is filed and a judgement handed down. Other billionaires follow suite and before you know it Trump is hawking blow-up beds and fancy mops on QVC by 2018. Melanie leaves him. Trump tower is renamed Equitable Credit and Reinvestment Refinancialisation Tower.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:04 AM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 417 D - 121 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 63% D - 52% R (Trump voter fraud revealed in early December)
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, and it's Big League self righteous, blaming the loss on everyone who worked for him and the voters who were too weak to vote for him.
WILL YOU CRY? Oh no, I will throw my head back and laugh the laugh of the self-righteously victorious.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 46
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 54
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single.
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? Everybody agrees that smoking pot is pretty damn harmless for adults and a good source of tax revenue.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS? Trump's comeuppance is long and exquisite. Namely, Daddy Warlocks' PAC (I know, who knew!) sue's Trump for not fulfilling his contract and as The D.W.PAC is funded by a for-real billionaire who is for real pissed about the way Trump screwed it all up an actual suit is filed and a judgement handed down. Other billionaires follow suite and before you know it Trump is hawking blow-up beds and fancy mops on QVC by 2018. Melanie leaves him. Trump tower is renamed Equitable Credit and Reinvestment Refinancialisation Tower.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:04 AM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 357 D -181 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 45% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH - Loser gives victory speech
WILL YOU CRY? yes
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 45
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 53
posted by readery at 5:15 AM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 357 D -181 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 45% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH - Loser gives victory speech
WILL YOU CRY? yes
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 45
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 53
posted by readery at 5:15 AM on November 7, 2016
My prediction:
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 412 D - 120 R, 6 McMuffin
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 39% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not officially.
WILL YOU CRY? Already am, and have been since I voted.
I really, really wish I could say that my state (SC) will go blue but not this time. But if TX goes blue that will more than make up for it!
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
posted by rabbitrabbit at 6:30 AM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 412 D - 120 R, 6 McMuffin
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 39% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not officially.
WILL YOU CRY? Already am, and have been since I voted.
I really, really wish I could say that my state (SC) will go blue but not this time. But if TX goes blue that will more than make up for it!
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 48
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 52
posted by rabbitrabbit at 6:30 AM on November 7, 2016
I can't even muster the energy it would take to type out salient predictions for state races, but this seems like as good a place as any to mention that on Saturday, I might have had one too many pints over an election discussion, and rather than drunk-Amazon.com, I opted to drunk-PredictIt.com, which is how I came to own several hundred shares of Pennsylvania going blue. Which... on sober reflection, was a great choice, because they're like 80 cents apiece, which means people think there's a 20% chance of the state turning red. The state that went for Obama by 10 and 6 points, and which hasn't swung red since Bush, Sr. took it 50.7 to 48.4 in 1998, since which time the state's demographics have changed completely. There are so many deluded Trump voters out there, and they're sinking real money into their certainty that Trump is about to run away with this one, counter to all observable reality.
I guess what I'm saying is, even drunk me is inexorably drawn to this damned election, but at least he's a bro.
posted by Mayor West at 6:35 AM on November 7, 2016 [2 favorites]
I guess what I'm saying is, even drunk me is inexorably drawn to this damned election, but at least he's a bro.
posted by Mayor West at 6:35 AM on November 7, 2016 [2 favorites]
Presidential Race
My Map
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 214 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 48% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Nope.
WILL YOU CRY? If Trump does, yes.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single-Digit
State Races
Josh Gottheimer beats Garrett, goes to the Senate representing NJ-5th.
Grab Bag
My anxiety will cause me to eat too much during the day and not enough at night.
posted by Stynxno at 6:52 AM on November 7, 2016
My Map
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 214 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 48% D - 42% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Nope.
WILL YOU CRY? If Trump does, yes.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republican
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single-Digit
State Races
Josh Gottheimer beats Garrett, goes to the Senate representing NJ-5th.
Grab Bag
My anxiety will cause me to eat too much during the day and not enough at night.
posted by Stynxno at 6:52 AM on November 7, 2016
My predictions:
Clinton by a hair.
Republican senate by a hair.
Republican house.
Election not called until past midnight EST.
Two years of non-stop wailing and gnashing of teeth to 2018 midterms.
Clinton's approval ratings in the toilet by November of 2017.
S & P will get to at least 2400 in this cycle before it breaks. The crash will be fugly. Wall Street and Silicon Valley will come out smelling like roses. If you have a good job suck it up and hold on. Pray for our fellow humans in Syria and Iraq and Libya and Pakistan and Afghanistan and surround.
No respite for the metafilter mod team. Don't run out of coffee.
posted by bukvich at 7:25 AM on November 7, 2016
Clinton by a hair.
Republican senate by a hair.
Republican house.
Election not called until past midnight EST.
Two years of non-stop wailing and gnashing of teeth to 2018 midterms.
Clinton's approval ratings in the toilet by November of 2017.
S & P will get to at least 2400 in this cycle before it breaks. The crash will be fugly. Wall Street and Silicon Valley will come out smelling like roses. If you have a good job suck it up and hold on. Pray for our fellow humans in Syria and Iraq and Libya and Pakistan and Afghanistan and surround.
No respite for the metafilter mod team. Don't run out of coffee.
posted by bukvich at 7:25 AM on November 7, 2016
One lesson from statistics that has served me well is that averages don't predict extremes. If you look at a baseball player who shatters records at age 20 and then try to predict his future according to what the average 20 year old follows up with, you will not get the right set of probabilities.
Other applications of this are that FBI profiling sucks, it is hard to predict rapid development in hurricanes and the polls don't predict landslides.
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 425 D - 113 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 55% D - 40% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not really concession. Just a reminder of how ugly America is and how you could have had me.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 47
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 53
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single digits.
Using Nate Silver's numbers, which I think are problematic, but which are the best odds for Trump and which do not take into account early voting.
Hillary is polling 10% points or more ahead in the following, State/electoral votes.
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Vermont 3
Maryland 10
California 55
Massachusetts 11
New York 29
Washington 12
Rhode Island 4
New Jersey 14
Maine, 1st District 1
Illinois 20
Delaware 3
Connecticut 7
176 electoral votes
These are the states where Hillary is polling 4 to 10% ahead:
Oregon 7
Minnesota 10
New Mexico 5
Maine - statewide 2
Wisconsin 10
Michigan 16
Virginia 13
63 additional electoral votes.
239 total.
I believe we're seeing a 2 to 4% bias in the polls versus the early voting. Part of this is reflected in the polls undercounting the new voting population and part is the fact that the race has narrowed towards Trump in the last few days after a large amount of voting has already taken place. This bump toward Hillary be even more pronounced in high Latino states, an undercounted group. Trump has done one thing successfully: he has motivated the Latino vote. Part of the underestimating is reflected in the fact that the animosity toward Trump is understated by polls that merely look at "unfavorable" versus "favorable."
Taken together I predict that Hillary will win all of the states in which she is polling better than Trump and will flip several states in which she is polling worse. This effect will be more dramatic in states with high Latino populations. Why Latino and not other minority? The other minority of comparable size (blacks) already has been turning out to vote in strong numbers.
Hillary will win the above states and I'm fairly certain will win these states:
First, these four in which she is leading in the polls.
Colorado 9
New Hampshire 4
Nevada 6
Pennsylvania 20
39 electoral votes
278 thus far.
Pennsylvania concerns me because, in my opinion, they have the most effective vote suppression system in the country. As some have pointed out, Hillary has virtually won Nevada. And it is strong Latino.
Hillary will win these three which are toss-up or leaning Trump, two are heavily Latino and NC is in range to fall:
Florida 29
North Carolina 15
Arizona 11
55 electoral
333 thus far.
Another two states and two districts which lean Trump and I'm not sure how minorities can swing the vote, but which I believe Hillary will win.
Ohio 18
Iowa 6
Maine 2nd District 1
Nebraska 2nd District 1
26 electoral.
359 thus far.
Finally, there are four longer shots, that are heavily enough minority that I place in the Hillary camp just because of my overly optimistic nature.
South Carolina 9
Texas 38
Alaska 3
Georgia 16
66 electoral votes.
425
Among those, Georgia is not really a long shot but didn't really fit in the other categories. Texas is possibly the bridge too far, but there are a massive number of Latinos ready to change the election there.
These are the states I believe Trump has in hand and will be impossible to flip:
Nebraska 3rd District 1
Wyoming 3
West Virginia 5
Oklahoma 7
North Dakota 3
Alabama 9
Idaho 4
Nebraska - statewide 2
Arkansas 6
Kentucky 8
Nebraska 1st District 1
Louisiana 8
Montana 3
Mississippi 6
Kansas 6
Tennessee 11
Indiana 11
South Dakota 3
Missouri 10
Utah 6
113 electoral votes.
Utah is a wild card. Lots of Hispanics, but lots of McMullin.
Puerto Rico will go Rossello who is very pro-statehood but also conservative. In part this will be because the Independence party candidate is charismatic and will bleed votes from the Commonwealth party.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:45 AM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
Other applications of this are that FBI profiling sucks, it is hard to predict rapid development in hurricanes and the polls don't predict landslides.
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 425 D - 113 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 55% D - 40% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not really concession. Just a reminder of how ugly America is and how you could have had me.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 47
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 53
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single digits.
Using Nate Silver's numbers, which I think are problematic, but which are the best odds for Trump and which do not take into account early voting.
Hillary is polling 10% points or more ahead in the following, State/electoral votes.
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Vermont 3
Maryland 10
California 55
Massachusetts 11
New York 29
Washington 12
Rhode Island 4
New Jersey 14
Maine, 1st District 1
Illinois 20
Delaware 3
Connecticut 7
176 electoral votes
These are the states where Hillary is polling 4 to 10% ahead:
Oregon 7
Minnesota 10
New Mexico 5
Maine - statewide 2
Wisconsin 10
Michigan 16
Virginia 13
63 additional electoral votes.
239 total.
I believe we're seeing a 2 to 4% bias in the polls versus the early voting. Part of this is reflected in the polls undercounting the new voting population and part is the fact that the race has narrowed towards Trump in the last few days after a large amount of voting has already taken place. This bump toward Hillary be even more pronounced in high Latino states, an undercounted group. Trump has done one thing successfully: he has motivated the Latino vote. Part of the underestimating is reflected in the fact that the animosity toward Trump is understated by polls that merely look at "unfavorable" versus "favorable."
Taken together I predict that Hillary will win all of the states in which she is polling better than Trump and will flip several states in which she is polling worse. This effect will be more dramatic in states with high Latino populations. Why Latino and not other minority? The other minority of comparable size (blacks) already has been turning out to vote in strong numbers.
Hillary will win the above states and I'm fairly certain will win these states:
First, these four in which she is leading in the polls.
Colorado 9
New Hampshire 4
Nevada 6
Pennsylvania 20
39 electoral votes
278 thus far.
Pennsylvania concerns me because, in my opinion, they have the most effective vote suppression system in the country. As some have pointed out, Hillary has virtually won Nevada. And it is strong Latino.
Hillary will win these three which are toss-up or leaning Trump, two are heavily Latino and NC is in range to fall:
Florida 29
North Carolina 15
Arizona 11
55 electoral
333 thus far.
Another two states and two districts which lean Trump and I'm not sure how minorities can swing the vote, but which I believe Hillary will win.
Ohio 18
Iowa 6
Maine 2nd District 1
Nebraska 2nd District 1
26 electoral.
359 thus far.
Finally, there are four longer shots, that are heavily enough minority that I place in the Hillary camp just because of my overly optimistic nature.
South Carolina 9
Texas 38
Alaska 3
Georgia 16
66 electoral votes.
425
Among those, Georgia is not really a long shot but didn't really fit in the other categories. Texas is possibly the bridge too far, but there are a massive number of Latinos ready to change the election there.
These are the states I believe Trump has in hand and will be impossible to flip:
Nebraska 3rd District 1
Wyoming 3
West Virginia 5
Oklahoma 7
North Dakota 3
Alabama 9
Idaho 4
Nebraska - statewide 2
Arkansas 6
Kentucky 8
Nebraska 1st District 1
Louisiana 8
Montana 3
Mississippi 6
Kansas 6
Tennessee 11
Indiana 11
South Dakota 3
Missouri 10
Utah 6
113 electoral votes.
Utah is a wild card. Lots of Hispanics, but lots of McMullin.
Puerto Rico will go Rossello who is very pro-statehood but also conservative. In part this will be because the Independence party candidate is charismatic and will bleed votes from the Commonwealth party.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:45 AM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? The mind boggles at this. It'll be a mixtape of blame, throwing everyone except Trump and his family under the bus. There'll be some degree of concession but....
WILL YOU CRY? No, but I'm making my daughter watch the returns with me.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/0AnBZ
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R 224-211
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? McGinty wins PA by < 1.5%
posted by splen at 8:07 AM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? The mind boggles at this. It'll be a mixtape of blame, throwing everyone except Trump and his family under the bus. There'll be some degree of concession but....
WILL YOU CRY? No, but I'm making my daughter watch the returns with me.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/0AnBZ
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R 224-211
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS? McGinty wins PA by < 1.5%
posted by splen at 8:07 AM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 334 D - 204 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Nope. He'll speak but the transcript won't include the word "congratulate" anywhere in it.
WILL YOU CRY? Sweet tears of relief, yes I should think so
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
For EV distribution, I left OH in the R column but put FL, NC, & AZ under D. I expect both Texas and Georgia to come close but stay R. It'll be enough (TTTCS).
Grab Bag
Please please please let my acute fears about voting site violence--armed chuckleheads creating an actual standoff situation--turn out to be “anxious worst-case-scenario handwringing” rather than “prediction.”
posted by miles per flower at 8:18 AM on November 7, 2016
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Nope. He'll speak but the transcript won't include the word "congratulate" anywhere in it.
WILL YOU CRY? Sweet tears of relief, yes I should think so
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Single
For EV distribution, I left OH in the R column but put FL, NC, & AZ under D. I expect both Texas and Georgia to come close but stay R. It'll be enough (TTTCS).
Grab Bag
Please please please let my acute fears about voting site violence--armed chuckleheads creating an actual standoff situation--turn out to be “anxious worst-case-scenario handwringing” rather than “prediction.”
posted by miles per flower at 8:18 AM on November 7, 2016
Speaking of Rosello in PR who is pro-statehood, DC is having a referendum on statehood. DC would require a constitutional amendment, PR could come in the normal route which is with simple-majority approval of both Houses of Congress and a presidential sig. (Such a bill was introduced in 2015 but is stuck in committee.)
posted by beagle at 9:33 AM on November 7, 2016
posted by beagle at 9:33 AM on November 7, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 284D- 254R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 46% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not really.
WILL YOU CRY? Happy celebratory noises, yes. Crying, no.
Here's my map.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double.
posted by enjoymoreradio at 11:02 AM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 284D- 254R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 46% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Not really.
WILL YOU CRY? Happy celebratory noises, yes. Crying, no.
Here's my map.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double.
posted by enjoymoreradio at 11:02 AM on November 7, 2016
No wonder the media treats the election like a game, when the people do too.
posted by terrapin at 12:31 PM on November 7, 2016
posted by terrapin at 12:31 PM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 323 D - 215 R
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: STRETCH GOALS VERSION: 374 D -164 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 48% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? He will wing it and blame everyone but himself.
WILL YOU CRY? I'm already crying.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50 + Tim Kaine FTW
posted by kirkaracha at 2:39 PM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: STRETCH GOALS VERSION: 374 D -164 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 51% D - 48% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? He will wing it and blame everyone but himself.
WILL YOU CRY? I'm already crying.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50 + Tim Kaine FTW
posted by kirkaracha at 2:39 PM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322-216
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% Dem / 44% GOP
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Does some word salad-y version of "I'M NOT FIRED, YOU'RE ALL FIRED" count?
SENATE: 50/50
HOUSE: GOP, double digits (but by fewer than they do now)
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 2:58 PM on November 7, 2016
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 47% Dem / 44% GOP
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Does some word salad-y version of "I'M NOT FIRED, YOU'RE ALL FIRED" count?
SENATE: 50/50
HOUSE: GOP, double digits (but by fewer than they do now)
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 2:58 PM on November 7, 2016
I thought Dukakis was a shoo-in. And there was a time that I could have believed that Barry Commoner might have a shot at the presidency. So, I'm going with the 270towin stats that currently have:
Clinton: 427
Trump: 105, and I'll give him the 6 from Utah, so 111
Worth noting: they're giving IN to Clinton.
I bet these folks also thought Dukakis couldn't possibly lose to George Bush.
posted by she's not there at 6:48 PM on November 7, 2016
Clinton: 427
Trump: 105, and I'll give him the 6 from Utah, so 111
Worth noting: they're giving IN to Clinton.
I bet these folks also thought Dukakis couldn't possibly lose to George Bush.
posted by she's not there at 6:48 PM on November 7, 2016
Question for the folks predicting Texas goes Dem: why and how do you see that? I mean, from where I stand, I'd have to say that no matter how ticked off Texas gets with Trump the state will stay solidly Republican red.
posted by easily confused at 8:11 PM on November 7, 2016
posted by easily confused at 8:11 PM on November 7, 2016
Presidential Race
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 374D- 164R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Lashes out at everyone and everything but self, but yes kind of.
WILL YOU CRY? No, I will sleep better than I have in a long time.
Here's my map
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double.
Grab Bag:
TrumpTV launches Tuesday night. Some R's will come around and try to confirm Garland, but will be blocked by the likes of Ted Cruz.
posted by localhuman at 8:36 PM on November 7, 2016
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 374D- 164R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Lashes out at everyone and everything but self, but yes kind of.
WILL YOU CRY? No, I will sleep better than I have in a long time.
Here's my map
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 49
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 51
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? Republicans
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? Double.
Grab Bag:
TrumpTV launches Tuesday night. Some R's will come around and try to confirm Garland, but will be blocked by the likes of Ted Cruz.
posted by localhuman at 8:36 PM on November 7, 2016
Question for the folks predicting Texas goes Dem: why and how do you see that?
I think it's based on the idea that Latinx voters turning out at the same rate as white voters could very likely flip Texas.
posted by dersins at 8:44 PM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
I think it's based on the idea that Latinx voters turning out at the same rate as white voters could very likely flip Texas.
posted by dersins at 8:44 PM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 322 D - 216 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, but he hints it was rigged/fishy
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
GOP holds the House by more than 10.
Grab Bag
Trump goes on a Twitter rant on Wednesday.
posted by lamp at 8:47 PM on November 7, 2016
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 49% D - 44% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Yes, but he hints it was rigged/fishy
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
House Races
GOP holds the House by more than 10.
Grab Bag
Trump goes on a Twitter rant on Wednesday.
posted by lamp at 8:47 PM on November 7, 2016
Linked to the wrong map, mine is actually here:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kb7e6
posted by localhuman at 9:05 PM on November 7, 2016
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kb7e6
posted by localhuman at 9:05 PM on November 7, 2016
OK, here's mine--I'm going for Maximum Pantsuit and (most of all) Maximum McMuffin:
Clinton 363 - Trump 163 - McMullin 6: Map here
Trump concession speech is there, but late and embarrassing in several different ways. Also, by incredible cosmic coincidence, it is held at the Grand Opening of the new Trump Mini-Golf Center in Saratoga Florida, where all the press has been specially invited . . .
Senate: D 52, R 48.
House: R +15.
posted by flug at 9:22 PM on November 7, 2016
Clinton 363 - Trump 163 - McMullin 6: Map here
Trump concession speech is there, but late and embarrassing in several different ways. Also, by incredible cosmic coincidence, it is held at the Grand Opening of the new Trump Mini-Golf Center in Saratoga Florida, where all the press has been specially invited . . .
Senate: D 52, R 48.
House: R +15.
posted by flug at 9:22 PM on November 7, 2016
And, I'm going to go w-a-y out on a limb and predict results for all six of Missouri's statewide ballot initiatives up for a vote tomorrow. FYI the first five are amendments to the state constitution (in MO the state constitution can be amendment by a simple majority vote of the populace at one election) and the sixth is a statutory initiative:
- PASS - A1 - Parks, Soils, Water 1/10 Cent Sales Tax Renewal
- PASS - A2 - Campaign contribution limits
- FAIL - A3 - Tobacco tax increase for children's health (crazy proposal supported mostly by tobacco companies)
- PASS - A4 - Prohibiting new state AND local sales taxes on any services not currently taxed (because Missourians will vote for anything anti-tax, no matter how crazy or nonsensical)
- PASS - A6 - Requiring photo ID for voting
- FAIL - PROP A - Tobacco tax increase for transportation (again, wack-acious and deceptive proposal supported by a competing set of tobacco companies to those support A3)
> Clinton 363 - Trump 163 - McMullin 6: Map here
And, I typo-ed. Those numbers don't add up. It's actually:
Clinton 369 - Trump 163 - McMullin 6: Map here
posted by flug at 9:34 PM on November 7, 2016
And, I typo-ed. Those numbers don't add up. It's actually:
Clinton 369 - Trump 163 - McMullin 6: Map here
posted by flug at 9:34 PM on November 7, 2016
And I forgot my topline prediction: Regardless of the rest, Trump will do worse than Romney in terms of Electoral Votes, with Utah going to McMullin or Clinton perhaps playing the spoiler role.
posted by flug at 9:49 PM on November 7, 2016
posted by flug at 9:49 PM on November 7, 2016
One more grab bag prediction: James O'Keefe or some other mailbox-fucker will go around to polling places trying to trick officials into letting him commit voter fraud (all while being secretly recorded).
Would you believe in a burka impersonating Huma Abedin?
posted by scalefree at 10:07 PM on November 7, 2016
Would you believe in a burka impersonating Huma Abedin?
posted by scalefree at 10:07 PM on November 7, 2016
TrumpTV launches Tuesday night.
Here's a photo from inside the Trump event that shows some Trump/Pence stickers marking an area off with "Trump TV" written on them. It all makes sense; this is how he escapes humiliation, by trying to overshadow Hillary's victory. And thus his narcissism is placated.
posted by scalefree at 10:17 PM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
Here's a photo from inside the Trump event that shows some Trump/Pence stickers marking an area off with "Trump TV" written on them. It all makes sense; this is how he escapes humiliation, by trying to overshadow Hillary's victory. And thus his narcissism is placated.
posted by scalefree at 10:17 PM on November 7, 2016 [1 favorite]
Presidential Race
I'm no good with the breakdowns, so will just say big Clinton win. Hopefully by 10%+
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Doubt it
WILL YOU CRY? Does already crying count?
In keeping with the charitable history of the contest, but consistent with my inability to figure out a good mathematical way to judge it, I will make one $50 gift to the most non-Trump charitable cause you can name...
This is mainly why I'm commenting: Médecins sans frontières. FWIW this is also the charity Wolof requested receive donations after his passing.
posted by fraula at 1:06 AM on November 8, 2016
I'm no good with the breakdowns, so will just say big Clinton win. Hopefully by 10%+
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? Doubt it
WILL YOU CRY? Does already crying count?
In keeping with the charitable history of the contest, but consistent with my inability to figure out a good mathematical way to judge it, I will make one $50 gift to the most non-Trump charitable cause you can name...
This is mainly why I'm commenting: Médecins sans frontières. FWIW this is also the charity Wolof requested receive donations after his passing.
posted by fraula at 1:06 AM on November 8, 2016
Clinton 307 Trump 225 McMullin 6
Clinton would get 322 but NC will go Red due to evil but successful voter suppression. Nevada goes Blue big. FL goes Blue closely. NH goes Blue barely.
Trump gives a speech that doesn't sound like a concession, but later he claims it was.
Senate: with only 50% confidence I say it will end up 50/50
House: Still Red, by double digits. Because gerrymandering.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:17 AM on November 8, 2016
Clinton would get 322 but NC will go Red due to evil but successful voter suppression. Nevada goes Blue big. FL goes Blue closely. NH goes Blue barely.
Trump gives a speech that doesn't sound like a concession, but later he claims it was.
Senate: with only 50% confidence I say it will end up 50/50
House: Still Red, by double digits. Because gerrymandering.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:17 AM on November 8, 2016
Any side bets on whether a candidate mentions Hamilton in any speech they may give tonight?
posted by zachlipton at 2:07 PM on November 8, 2016
posted by zachlipton at 2:07 PM on November 8, 2016
I want to be clear, my post was meant as a joke, but - I will accept it as a roadmap.
posted by Nanukthedog at 8:45 PM on November 8, 2016
posted by Nanukthedog at 8:45 PM on November 8, 2016
Was Wordshore literally the only one who predicted the correct Presidential outcome?
posted by en forme de poire at 3:20 AM on November 9, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by en forme de poire at 3:20 AM on November 9, 2016 [1 favorite]
Was Wordshore literally the only one who predicted the correct Presidential outcome?
Looks like daybeforetheday was there, too.
I was surprised by how many people had huge leads for Clinton. I expected a Clinton win, but I thought it would be close (yeah, I know, easy to say after the fact).
posted by klausness at 5:02 AM on November 9, 2016 [1 favorite]
Looks like daybeforetheday was there, too.
I was surprised by how many people had huge leads for Clinton. I expected a Clinton win, but I thought it would be close (yeah, I know, easy to say after the fact).
posted by klausness at 5:02 AM on November 9, 2016 [1 favorite]
I got it within a few EVs. You can always rely on Metafilter to be an echo chamber, and people put an absurd amount of faith in """"polling"""".
posted by nicolas léonard sadi carnot at 5:15 AM on November 9, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by nicolas léonard sadi carnot at 5:15 AM on November 9, 2016 [1 favorite]
Well, I am crushed that I ended up being right :( I am so sorry.
posted by daybeforetheday at 10:12 AM on November 9, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by daybeforetheday at 10:12 AM on November 9, 2016 [5 favorites]
I donated $50 to Planned Parenthood, in hopes that its days aren't numbered yet.
Thanks for participating everybody. I am still in shock.
posted by sallybrown at 2:10 PM on November 9, 2016 [3 favorites]
Thanks for participating everybody. I am still in shock.
posted by sallybrown at 2:10 PM on November 9, 2016 [3 favorites]
I'mma gonna change my recommendation of MSF to the ACLU.
The ACLU is being very awesome.
posted by fraula at 10:52 AM on November 10, 2016
The ACLU is being very awesome.
posted by fraula at 10:52 AM on November 10, 2016
You are not logged in, either login or create an account to post comments
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION: 312 D - 226 R
POPULAR VOTE PERCENTAGES: 45% D - 43% R
DOES THE LOSER GIVE A CONCESSION SPEECH? The press will call it a concession speech. It may not be recognizable as one.
WILL YOU CRY? Outlook uncertain.
Senate Races
NUMBER OF GOP-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
NUMBER OF DEM-HELD SENATE SEATS: 50
(include Independents in Dem)
House Races
WHICH PARTY LEADS THE HOUSE? R
BY DOUBLE-DIGIT OR SINGLE-DIGIT SEATS? 13 seats.
State Races
ANY PREDICTIONS?
Marijuana initiatives mostly succeed.
Grab Bag
ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS?
None.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 9:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]