And the winner of the 2006 Metafilter Election Prediction contest is . . . November 8, 2006 7:42 AM Subscribe
And the winner of the 2006 MetaFilter Election Prediction Contest is...
The outcome of the VA senate race won't be known for weeks, it seems, but it seems clear that the Webb will win the initial count, which is what I'll go with.
posted by gsteff at 7:44 AM on November 8, 2006
posted by gsteff at 7:44 AM on November 8, 2006
Some house races are still uncertain, of course, but given that the Dems won at least 227, they won't affect sergeant sandwich's position.
posted by gsteff at 7:45 AM on November 8, 2006
posted by gsteff at 7:45 AM on November 8, 2006
I'd like to say that I'm glad my predictions didn't come true.
posted by drezdn at 7:53 AM on November 8, 2006
posted by drezdn at 7:53 AM on November 8, 2006
That ranking uses a House outcome of 230/205/0. If you use only races CNN has called as of now (227/195/0) the results are:
User Senate House Connecticut Scores D R I D R I D R I Sen House Conn. 1) sergeant sandwich 49 49 2 228 207 0 34 10 52 0 13 8.0 2) raf 49 49 2 236 199 0 40 14 46 0 13 8.0 3) gimonca 49 49 2 235 200 0 41 14 45 0 13 10.0 4) taosbat 49 49 2 225 210 0 42 11 47 0 17 6.0 5) gsteff 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 11 45 0 23 8.0 6) team lowkey 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 11 45 0 23 8.0 7) fishfucker 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 12 44 0 23 10.0 8) dances_with_sneetches 49 49 2 221 212 0 41 14 44 0 23 11.0 9) mister_a 49 49 2 222 213 0 40 16 44 0 23 12.0 10) mdonley 49 49 2 219 216 0 46 6 48 0 29 12.0 11) box 49 49 2 218 217 0 42 6 50 0 31 6.0 12) j-urb 49 49 1 220 215 0 42 10 46 1 27 6.0 13) smackfu 50 49 1 230 204 1 42 10 48 2 13 4.0 14) madamjujujive 50 48 2 239 196 0 41 12 47 2 13 6.0 15) stemlot 48 50 2 230 205 0 42 7 51 2 13 6.0 16) richardp 48 50 2 234 201 0 41 14 44 2 13 11.0 17) norm111 49 50 1 231 204 0 45 7 47 2 13 11.0 18) isocahedral 48 50 2 228 207 0 42 14 44 2 13 12.0 19) plutor 49 50 1 235 200 0 46 5 49 2 13 12.0 20) rbellon 50 48 2 228 207 0 46 11 42 2 13 15.0 21) XQUZYPHYR 49 50 1 229 206 0 44 14 40 2 13 18.0 22) scottreynen 50 49 1 240 195 0 41 18 40 2 13 19.0 23) lackutrol 50 48 2 226 209 0 40 12 48 2 15 4.0 24) saucy intruder 50 49 1 229 209 0 44 13 43 2 16 14.0 25) empath 49 50 1 230 208 0 44 16 40 2 16 20.0 26) earbucket 48 50 2 225 210 0 41 10 49 2 17 2.0 27) cunninglinguist 48 50 2 242 193 0 45 6 49 2 17 10.0 28) ibmcginty 49 50 1 225 210 0 35 10 45 2 17 10.0 29) dejah420 50 48 2 225 208 2 47 10 43 2 17 14.0 30) ruelle 49 50 1 223 212 0 39 10 41 2 21 10.0 31) whatnot 49 50 1 223 212 0 45 18 37 2 21 26.0 32) dw 48 50 2 222 213 0 42 10 48 2 23 4.0 33) edgeways 49 50 1 221 214 0 46 8 45 2 25 13.0 34) brina 48 50 2 219 214 0 46 7 47 2 27 12.0 35) deadmessenger 48 50 2 220 215 0 43 14 42 2 27 14.1 36) krrrlson 48 50 2 219 216 0 41 8 50 2 29 3.0 37) jmoz 49 50 1 218 217 0 44 17 39 2 31 22.0 38) winston 50 49 1 266 168 1 38 20 42 2 67 20.0 39) skorgu 48 50 2 196 239 0 41 17 42 2 75 16.0 40) ironmouth 50 48 1 235 200 0 42 5 47 3 13 10.0 41) scrump 51 48 1 234 201 0 44 12 43 4 13 12.8 42) zhivota 51 49 0 224 209 2 44 10 44 4 19 10.1 43) kwantsar 47 51 2 223 212 0 40 12 46 4 21 6.0 44) rumple 51 48 1 222 213 0 43 17 40 4 23 20.0 45) x_3mta3 48 51 1 222 213 0 44 15 39 4 23 20.0 46) demogorgon 47 51 2 221 214 0 38 15 42 4 25 15.0 47) amberglow 48 51 1 219 214 0 45 8 47 4 27 10.0 48) amizu 48 51 1 220 215 0 46 12 42 4 27 16.0 49) kickstart70 47 51 2 220 215 0 49 6 45 4 27 18.0 50) sksp 51 48 1 224 221 0 41 13 46 4 29 8.0 51) mcd 48 51 1 218 217 0 41 10 49 4 31 2.0 52) johnnygunn 47 51 2 217 218 0 43 5 52 4 33 10.0 53) hangashore 48 51 1 215 220 0 43 11 46 4 37 8.0 54) beagle 47 51 2 215 220 0 44 9 47 4 37 8.0 55) drezdn 51 47 2 215 220 0 35 20 45 4 37 20.0 56) french fry 51 49 0 230 235 0 17 21 16 4 43 68.0 57) jefbla 52 47 2 227 208 0 42 15 41 5 13 16.4 58) cholly 52 47 1 234 210 1 41 12 47 6 23 6.0 59) spaltavian 46 52 2 221 214 0 40 16 44 6 25 12.0 60) mediareport 46 52 2 219 216 0 38 10 49 6 29 3.0 61) davejay 53 45 2 220 215 0 50 10 40 8 27 20.0 62) casconed 45 69 0 225 240 0 49 12 40 26 47 21.0If you use that score to rank people purely by their House predictions (and the order that they posted), the results are:
User Senate House Connecticut Scores D R I D R I D R I Sen House Conn. 1) isocahedral 48 50 2 228 207 0 42 14 44 2 13 12.0 2) plutor 49 50 1 235 200 0 46 5 49 2 13 12.0 3) richardp 48 50 2 234 201 0 41 14 44 2 13 11.0 4) scrump 51 48 1 234 201 0 44 12 43 4 13 12.8 5) ironmouth 50 48 1 235 200 0 42 5 47 3 13 10.0 6) jefbla 52 47 2 227 208 0 42 15 41 5 13 16.4 7) scottreynen 50 49 1 240 195 0 41 18 40 2 13 19.0 8) XQUZYPHYR 49 50 1 229 206 0 44 14 40 2 13 18.0 9) rbellon 50 48 2 228 207 0 46 11 42 2 13 15.0 10) madamjujujive 50 48 2 239 196 0 41 12 47 2 13 6.0 11) sergeant sandwich 49 49 2 228 207 0 34 10 52 0 13 8.0 12) smackfu 50 49 1 230 204 1 42 10 48 2 13 4.0 13) raf 49 49 2 236 199 0 40 14 46 0 13 8.0 14) gimonca 49 49 2 235 200 0 41 14 45 0 13 10.0 15) norm111 49 50 1 231 204 0 45 7 47 2 13 11.0 16) stemlot 48 50 2 230 205 0 42 7 51 2 13 6.0 17) lackutrol 50 48 2 226 209 0 40 12 48 2 15 4.0 18) saucy intruder 50 49 1 229 209 0 44 13 43 2 16 14.0 19) empath 49 50 1 230 208 0 44 16 40 2 16 20.0 20) dejah420 50 48 2 225 208 2 47 10 43 2 17 14.0 21) earbucket 48 50 2 225 210 0 41 10 49 2 17 2.0 22) cunninglinguist 48 50 2 242 193 0 45 6 49 2 17 10.0 23) ibmcginty 49 50 1 225 210 0 35 10 45 2 17 10.0 24) taosbat 49 49 2 225 210 0 42 11 47 0 17 6.0 25) zhivota 51 49 0 224 209 2 44 10 44 4 19 10.1 26) whatnot 49 50 1 223 212 0 45 18 37 2 21 26.0 27) kwantsar 47 51 2 223 212 0 40 12 46 4 21 6.0 28) ruelle 49 50 1 223 212 0 39 10 41 2 21 10.0 29) gsteff 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 11 45 0 23 8.0 30) fishfucker 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 12 44 0 23 10.0 31) team lowkey 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 11 45 0 23 8.0 32) mister_a 49 49 2 222 213 0 40 16 44 0 23 12.0 33) rumple 51 48 1 222 213 0 43 17 40 4 23 20.0 34) cholly 52 47 1 234 210 1 41 12 47 6 23 6.0 35) x_3mta3 48 51 1 222 213 0 44 15 39 4 23 20.0 36) dances_with_sneetches 49 49 2 221 212 0 41 14 44 0 23 11.0 37) dw 48 50 2 222 213 0 42 10 48 2 23 4.0 38) edgeways 49 50 1 221 214 0 46 8 45 2 25 13.0 39) spaltavian 46 52 2 221 214 0 40 16 44 6 25 12.0 40) demogorgon 47 51 2 221 214 0 38 15 42 4 25 15.0 41) kickstart70 47 51 2 220 215 0 49 6 45 4 27 18.0 42) brina 48 50 2 219 214 0 46 7 47 2 27 12.0 43) deadmessenger 48 50 2 220 215 0 43 14 42 2 27 14.1 44) amizu 48 51 1 220 215 0 46 12 42 4 27 16.0 45) amberglow 48 51 1 219 214 0 45 8 47 4 27 10.0 46) davejay 53 45 2 220 215 0 50 10 40 8 27 20.0 47) j-urb 49 49 1 220 215 0 42 10 46 1 27 6.0 48) mdonley 49 49 2 219 216 0 46 6 48 0 29 12.0 49) sksp 51 48 1 224 221 0 41 13 46 4 29 8.0 50) krrrlson 48 50 2 219 216 0 41 8 50 2 29 3.0 51) mediareport 46 52 2 219 216 0 38 10 49 6 29 3.0 52) mcd 48 51 1 218 217 0 41 10 49 4 31 2.0 53) jmoz 49 50 1 218 217 0 44 17 39 2 31 22.0 54) box 49 49 2 218 217 0 42 6 50 0 31 6.0 55) johnnygunn 47 51 2 217 218 0 43 5 52 4 33 10.0 56) drezdn 51 47 2 215 220 0 35 20 45 4 37 20.0 57) hangashore 48 51 1 215 220 0 43 11 46 4 37 8.0 58) beagle 47 51 2 215 220 0 44 9 47 4 37 8.0 59) french fry 51 49 0 230 235 0 17 21 16 4 43 68.0 60) casconed 45 69 0 225 240 0 49 12 40 26 47 21.0 61) winston 50 49 1 266 168 1 38 20 42 2 67 20.0 62) skorgu 48 50 2 196 239 0 41 17 42 2 75 16.0And if you rank people purely by their Connecticut score, the results are:
User Senate House Connecticut Scores D R I D R I D R I Sen House Conn. 1) earbucket 48 50 2 225 210 0 41 10 49 2 17 2.0 2) mcd 48 51 1 218 217 0 41 10 49 4 31 2.0 3) krrrlson 48 50 2 219 216 0 41 8 50 2 29 3.0 4) mediareport 46 52 2 219 216 0 38 10 49 6 29 3.0 5) lackutrol 50 48 2 226 209 0 40 12 48 2 15 4.0 6) smackfu 50 49 1 230 204 1 42 10 48 2 13 4.0 7) dw 48 50 2 222 213 0 42 10 48 2 23 4.0 8) taosbat 49 49 2 225 210 0 42 11 47 0 17 6.0 9) cholly 52 47 1 234 210 1 41 12 47 6 23 6.0 10) madamjujujive 50 48 2 239 196 0 41 12 47 2 13 6.0 11) kwantsar 47 51 2 223 212 0 40 12 46 4 21 6.0 12) box 49 49 2 218 217 0 42 6 50 0 31 6.0 13) j-urb 49 49 1 220 215 0 42 10 46 1 27 6.0 14) stemlot 48 50 2 230 205 0 42 7 51 2 13 6.0 15) gsteff 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 11 45 0 23 8.0 16) team lowkey 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 11 45 0 23 8.0 17) hangashore 48 51 1 215 220 0 43 11 46 4 37 8.0 18) sksp 51 48 1 224 221 0 41 13 46 4 29 8.0 19) beagle 47 51 2 215 220 0 44 9 47 4 37 8.0 20) sergeant sandwich 49 49 2 228 207 0 34 10 52 0 13 8.0 21) raf 49 49 2 236 199 0 40 14 46 0 13 8.0 22) fishfucker 49 49 2 222 213 0 42 12 44 0 23 10.0 23) cunninglinguist 48 50 2 242 193 0 45 6 49 2 17 10.0 24) johnnygunn 47 51 2 217 218 0 43 5 52 4 33 10.0 25) ibmcginty 49 50 1 225 210 0 35 10 45 2 17 10.0 26) ironmouth 50 48 1 235 200 0 42 5 47 3 13 10.0 27) amberglow 48 51 1 219 214 0 45 8 47 4 27 10.0 28) ruelle 49 50 1 223 212 0 39 10 41 2 21 10.0 29) gimonca 49 49 2 235 200 0 41 14 45 0 13 10.0 30) zhivota 51 49 0 224 209 2 44 10 44 4 19 10.1 31) richardp 48 50 2 234 201 0 41 14 44 2 13 11.0 32) dances_with_sneetches 49 49 2 221 212 0 41 14 44 0 23 11.0 33) norm111 49 50 1 231 204 0 45 7 47 2 13 11.0 34) isocahedral 48 50 2 228 207 0 42 14 44 2 13 12.0 35) brina 48 50 2 219 214 0 46 7 47 2 27 12.0 36) plutor 49 50 1 235 200 0 46 5 49 2 13 12.0 37) mdonley 49 49 2 219 216 0 46 6 48 0 29 12.0 38) mister_a 49 49 2 222 213 0 40 16 44 0 23 12.0 39) spaltavian 46 52 2 221 214 0 40 16 44 6 25 12.0 40) scrump 51 48 1 234 201 0 44 12 43 4 13 12.8 41) edgeways 49 50 1 221 214 0 46 8 45 2 25 13.0 42) dejah420 50 48 2 225 208 2 47 10 43 2 17 14.0 43) saucy intruder 50 49 1 229 209 0 44 13 43 2 16 14.0 44) deadmessenger 48 50 2 220 215 0 43 14 42 2 27 14.1 45) rbellon 50 48 2 228 207 0 46 11 42 2 13 15.0 46) demogorgon 47 51 2 221 214 0 38 15 42 4 25 15.0 47) amizu 48 51 1 220 215 0 46 12 42 4 27 16.0 48) skorgu 48 50 2 196 239 0 41 17 42 2 75 16.0 49) jefbla 52 47 2 227 208 0 42 15 41 5 13 16.4 50) kickstart70 47 51 2 220 215 0 49 6 45 4 27 18.0 51) XQUZYPHYR 49 50 1 229 206 0 44 14 40 2 13 18.0 52) scottreynen 50 49 1 240 195 0 41 18 40 2 13 19.0 53) empath 49 50 1 230 208 0 44 16 40 2 16 20.0 54) drezdn 51 47 2 215 220 0 35 20 45 4 37 20.0 55) rumple 51 48 1 222 213 0 43 17 40 4 23 20.0 56) winston 50 49 1 266 168 1 38 20 42 2 67 20.0 57) x_3mta3 48 51 1 222 213 0 44 15 39 4 23 20.0 58) davejay 53 45 2 220 215 0 50 10 40 8 27 20.0 59) casconed 45 69 0 225 240 0 49 12 40 26 47 21.0 60) jmoz 49 50 1 218 217 0 44 17 39 2 31 22.0 61) whatnot 49 50 1 223 212 0 45 18 37 2 21 26.0 62) french fry 51 49 0 230 235 0 17 21 16 4 43 68.0posted by gsteff at 7:53 AM on November 8, 2006
Who knew there were TWO independents in the Senate? Damn you Bernie Sanders.
posted by smackfu at 8:15 AM on November 8, 2006
posted by smackfu at 8:15 AM on November 8, 2006
1. Congrats Sarge!
2. Reverse congrats to my brother for surrealizing his way to the bottom of the CT race. Portland: we do politics different.
3. gsteff, I may be telling you something you already know, but if you haven't already you can totally pre-order those CDs right now. Be a few weeks before they're out, yet, but maybe that's what you were getting at when you said "available".
posted by cortex at 8:17 AM on November 8, 2006
2. Reverse congrats to my brother for surrealizing his way to the bottom of the CT race. Portland: we do politics different.
3. gsteff, I may be telling you something you already know, but if you haven't already you can totally pre-order those CDs right now. Be a few weeks before they're out, yet, but maybe that's what you were getting at when you said "available".
posted by cortex at 8:17 AM on November 8, 2006
45 democrat and .... 69 republican senators?
did we add some states?
posted by StrasbourgSecaucus at 8:39 AM on November 8, 2006
did we add some states?
posted by StrasbourgSecaucus at 8:39 AM on November 8, 2006
I, for one, welcome our new Canadian coffee-shop overlords.
posted by languagehat at 9:02 AM on November 8, 2006
posted by languagehat at 9:02 AM on November 8, 2006
I note that my prediction is not on the final tally.
I DEMAND A RECOUNT.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 9:13 AM on November 8, 2006
I DEMAND A RECOUNT.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 9:13 AM on November 8, 2006
Yikes, sorry crash. Your scores were:
Senate: 4
House (230/205/0): 24
House (227/195/0): 31
Connecticut: 18.0
If anyone would like the dataset, or for some other calculations to be run, just ask.
posted by gsteff at 9:40 AM on November 8, 2006
Senate: 4
House (230/205/0): 24
House (227/195/0): 31
Connecticut: 18.0
If anyone would like the dataset, or for some other calculations to be run, just ask.
posted by gsteff at 9:40 AM on November 8, 2006
and I'll arrange to get the prize of two MetaFilter Compilation Albums delivered to you (once they're available).
Copies the compilation?
Maybe a copy of Duke Nukem Forever, too?
i keed, i keed.
posted by YoBananaBoy at 10:53 AM on November 8, 2006
Copies the compilation?
Maybe a copy of Duke Nukem Forever, too?
i keed, i keed.
posted by YoBananaBoy at 10:53 AM on November 8, 2006
"And the winner of the 2006 MetaFilter Election Prediction Contest is..."
...America.
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 10:54 AM on November 8, 2006 [2 favorites]
...America.
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 10:54 AM on November 8, 2006 [2 favorites]
smackfu: "Who knew there were TWO independents in the Senate? Damn you Bernie Sanders."
Spoken like a true Connecticut-ican.
posted by Plutor at 11:04 AM on November 8, 2006
Spoken like a true Connecticut-ican.
posted by Plutor at 11:04 AM on November 8, 2006
yeah - 45/69. I saw that after I posted and couldn't figure out where i did the math incorrectly. granted, i was obviously NOT trying to win but you'd think i could AT LEAST get the proper number of senators, yanno?
posted by casconed at 11:10 AM on November 8, 2006
posted by casconed at 11:10 AM on November 8, 2006
wow! the only way this day gets any better is if some playmates were to come parachuting in from the sky!
to be honest i think it's early yet to be calling the races in MT/VA decided, so if there turn out to be any last-minute vote recount shenanigans, i'm happy to defer to whatever the final outcome turns out to be.
at any rate, thanks for a fun contest, gsteff.
posted by sergeant sandwich at 1:18 PM on November 8, 2006
to be honest i think it's early yet to be calling the races in MT/VA decided, so if there turn out to be any last-minute vote recount shenanigans, i'm happy to defer to whatever the final outcome turns out to be.
at any rate, thanks for a fun contest, gsteff.
posted by sergeant sandwich at 1:18 PM on November 8, 2006
Man, I completely underestimated the JOEmentum. Congratulations, Mr. Sandwich.
posted by whatnot at 1:19 PM on November 8, 2006
posted by whatnot at 1:19 PM on November 8, 2006
I DEMAND A RECOUNT.
Damned electronic voting! sergeant sandwich totally hacked this thing with his nanomanipulator.
This comment is useless without the img tag
posted by Chuckles at 2:08 PM on November 8, 2006
Damned electronic voting! sergeant sandwich totally hacked this thing with his nanomanipulator.
This comment is useless without the img tag
posted by Chuckles at 2:08 PM on November 8, 2006
Damn arbitrary selection!
*salutes sarge*
Someone remind me to copy the numbers of someone who actually knows what is going on next time.
posted by cholly at 2:14 PM on November 8, 2006
*salutes sarge*
Someone remind me to copy the numbers of someone who actually knows what is going on next time.
posted by cholly at 2:14 PM on November 8, 2006
On the whole, I'm so glad to have been so wrong. Cheers to Sarge, and most of all to gsteff for putting the whole thing together.
posted by hangashore at 4:41 PM on November 8, 2006
posted by hangashore at 4:41 PM on November 8, 2006
wow! the only way this day gets any better is if some playmates were to come parachuting in from the sky!
I think Harold Ford may have some campaign funds left over...
posted by gimonca at 5:25 PM on November 8, 2006
I think Harold Ford may have some campaign funds left over...
posted by gimonca at 5:25 PM on November 8, 2006
You know 10 seats are still in question, right?
posted by CunningLinguist at 12:38 PM on November 9, 2006
posted by CunningLinguist at 12:38 PM on November 9, 2006
You are not logged in, either login or create an account to post comments
I'll wait until Montana is settled more definitively to call it for sure, but that's the only variable... as long as Montana goes Dem, the outcomes of any outstanding house races shouldn't affect his #1 slot. Congratulations, sergeant! Let cortex know what mailing address you'd like to use, and I'll arrange to get the prize of two MetaFilter Compilation Albums delivered to you (once they're available).
Overall results summary follows. For completeness, I've included some users whose entries were posted after the deadline, since none would be in the winning position (though gimonca came close). As described before, overall ranking is determined by your senate score, then your house score, then your connecticut score, then your posting time. I'll post the rankings for each of the subscores as well. posted by gsteff at 7:43 AM on November 8, 2006